DRCOG presents regional housing-needs assessment; Boulder portion shows greatest shortfall at lower AMI levels

Sheila Lynch, director of regional planning at the Denver Regional Council of Governments (DRCOG), and colleagues presented a Regional Housing Needs Assessment and dashboard to the Housing Advisory Board on Feb. 26 that maps projected demand across the Denver metro region and by local submarket.

Lynch said DRCOG's needs assessment estimated roughly 511,000 new housing units by 02/1950 (200,000 by 02/1932 in a shorter policy window) across the region, and that the largest portion of unmet need would fall into low-income AMI bins (0'30% and 30'60% AMI). "Low-income households are really the largest portion of need," Lynch said, adding that aging population trends and smaller households are increasing demand for below-market housing.

Zach (DRCOG data lead) explained the methodology: project future supply and demand using census data and State Demography Office forecasts, distribute demand by commuter-based submarkets, then match housing-unit affordability to household income bins to estimate gaps. He cautioned that the analysis normalizes the AMI distribution across submarkets; local differences in income distribution will affect how needs should be prioritized on the ground.

For the City of Boulder alone, the presentation allocated roughly 10,000 units in the shorter-term policy window (2023'~2032) with a large share toward the lowest AMI bins, driven in part by high employment and strong transit access in the city, Lynch said. DRCOG's dashboard and report include interactive data allowing jurisdictions to examine local drivers and allocations.

DRCOG's stakeholder outreach included more than 200 interviews and focus groups to identify systemic barriers (land-use and entitlement processes, infrastructure funding complexity, development and labor costs, financing gaps, and local political barriers). Lynch said the housing strategy DRCOG will develop during the next year will build on that systems analysis, pair short-term actions with longer-term reforms, and aim to integrate housing into its Metro Vision regional plan update.

Board members questioned several assumptions and requested local breakdowns: they asked whether bedroom-per-person trends were increasing or decreasing, how short-term rentals and second homes were treated in supply, and whether the growth assumptions implicitly expected more workers to live locally. DRCOG responded that the model excludes short-term rentals and second homes from the permanent supply and that some behavioral assumptions (for example, worker residence patterns) are sensitive and can be varied in scenario runs.

Lynch said DRCOG planned further engagement and a draft housing strategy with implementation options in the year ahead. "We hope to be finished by January of next year," she said, describing a schedule for deeper engagement beginning in April and continuing through the strategy development phase.

Ending: DRCOG provided an interactive dashboard and a written report; HAB members asked for additional local breakdowns and said they would follow DRCOG's public engagement and strategy process as it develops.