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Planning director updates committee on Vision 2050; preferred growth scenario to guide comp plan update
Summary
Elizabeth Back, Nassau County planning director, briefed the Affordable Housing Advisory Committee on Vision 2050, described public engagement results and said the preferred growth scenario will be refined and taken to the BOCC before the comprehensive plan update begins.
Elizabeth Back, planning director for Nassau County, briefed the Affordable Housing Advisory Committee on the Vision 2050 planning process and next steps toward a comprehensive plan update. Back said the Vision 2050 effort has been highly iterative, with extensive public outreach including a statistically valid survey of more than 400 respondents and more than 900 survey responses overall.
Back said the county must update the comprehensive plan at least every seven years and now must use a 10-year planning horizon under recent state guidance. The Vision 2050 work examines population-growth scenarios and infrastructure needs; staff and consultants used a 2.5% compounding annual growth rate for one high-growth scenario that would add roughly 100,000 residents by 2050 and require tens of thousands of additional dwelling units. Staff noted about 30,000 dwelling units are currently entitled in large-sector plans (including ENCPA and other districts) and that the consultants estimate additional dwelling units and job growth would be needed to approach a 1:1 jobs-to-housing ratio.
Back described three growth scenarios discussed with the public — “trend,” “incremental” and “think big” — and said the preferred scenario draws from public input and is being refined. She highlighted potential receiving areas for more intensive employment and residential development, conservation emphasis along the St. Marys River, and the possible use of transfer-of-development-rights and transect/form-based coding to concentrate density in appropriate corridors.
Back said the Vision 2050 final materials will include maps and a MAP series and that staff plan to present the draft to committees, municipal partners and the BOCC and then begin a 12-to-24-month comprehensive plan update to implement the vision through land-development regulation changes. She encouraged committee members and the public to attend upcoming engagement events, including a tentative March 19 Timber to Tides workshop and potential outreach at Shrimp Fest and the beaches opening in May.
