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Budget analysts urge caution as governor proposes delayed Prop.98 "settle up" to manage revenue volatility

2437771 · February 27, 2025
AI-Generated Content: All content on this page was generated by AI to highlight key points from the meeting. For complete details and context, we recommend watching the full video. so we can fix them.

Summary

Department of Finance and Legislative Analyst Office described Proposition 98 calculations and a governor proposal to delay $1.6 billion of 2024‑25 Prop.98 settle‑up into 2025‑26. Analysts outlined alternatives and warned of high sensitivity of the guarantee to revenue swings.

The Senate Budget Subcommittee No. 1 on Education reviewed the state’s Proposition 98 forecast and policy options on March 13, with Department of Finance (DOF) and Legislative Analyst’s Office (LAO) officials warning that volatile revenue sources make 2024‑25 funding decisions unusually risky.

DOF overview and figures

Alex Shope of the Department of Finance told the subcommittee the governor’s budget projects the Proposition 98 guarantee for fiscal year 2025‑26 at about $118.9 billion and shows roughly $7.5 billion of growth across 2024‑25 and 2025‑26 compared with the current‑year enacted budget. Shope said the administration proposes treating about $1.6 billion of 2024‑25 settle‑up as a timing item intended to avoid over‑appropriation should revenue soften between the governor’s January proposal and the May revision.

“The 1.6 billion is an estimate that reflects uncertainty in revenue estimates and could be revised at the May revision,” DOF staff told the…

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