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ORED forecast: Chatham County Schools face substantial enrollment gains if infrastructure opens by 2027
Summary
ORED (ITRI) presenters told a joint meeting that a baseline enrollment forecast plus pending residential development could produce unprecedented student growth for Chatham County Schools, with major sewer projects in 2027 flagged as a key enabling factor.
Thomas Dudley and Brian Godfrey of the Office of Research, Evaluation and Design (ORED), part of NC State University's Institute for Transportation Research and Education (ITRI), presented a multi‑scenario enrollment forecast for Chatham County Schools and explained the methods behind their projections.
Dudley introduced the presenters and said ORED is an “unbiased third party evaluation research group” that produces membership forecasts and attendance‑zone work for school districts. He told the boards that resident live births are a critical long‑lead indicator for kindergarten enrollment and that sustained high birth counts observed in recent state data informed their projection.
Godfrey described the development inventory ORED used, saying…
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