ORED forecast: Chatham County Schools face substantial enrollment gains if infrastructure opens by 2027

Thomas Dudley and Brian Godfrey of the Office of Research, Evaluation and Design (ORED), part of NC State University's Institute for Transportation Research and Education (ITRI), presented a multi‑scenario enrollment forecast for Chatham County Schools and explained the methods behind their projections.

Dudley introduced the presenters and said ORED is an “unbiased third party evaluation research group” that produces membership forecasts and attendance‑zone work for school districts. He told the boards that resident live births are a critical long‑lead indicator for kindergarten enrollment and that sustained high birth counts observed in recent state data informed their projection.

Godfrey described the development inventory ORED used, saying the county still has a “substantial amount” of residential development pending. He told the meeting that, apart from Chatham Park, ORED is monitoring 51 pending residential developments across jurisdictions that together represent “over 10,000 dwelling units.” The presenters said two major wastewater projects—the force main from Pittsboro to Sanford and an expansion of the Siler City wastewater facility—are expected to be complete in 2027 and that completion would materially increase the pace of residential building and corresponding student generation.

Dudley described the enrollment tables ORED produced, which show school‑by‑school capacity versus forecasted membership over a 10‑year horizon. He said cells are color‑coded by utilization and explained the distinction between “brick and mortar” capacity (the building) and “serviceable” capacity, which includes modular units. When asked if the tables included mobile classrooms, Dudley confirmed the distinction and said serviceable capacity accounts for modular units and trailers.

Presenters noted modeling for Chatham Park used both developer timelines for lots coming online and student‑generation rates based on a case study of Briar Chapel. Dudley said there are six forecast variants in the report and that including Chatham Park materially increases red (over‑capacity) cells in the tables. He characterized the baseline forecast as unusually large: “of those roughly 250 enrollment forecasts, what you just saw is the most aggressive forecast we've ever produced,” referring to ORED’s experience since 1990.

Dudley also compared the most recent prior projection to actual membership, noting ORED projected 8,826 students for the current school year while the actual membership was approximately 8,775. The presenters emphasized uncertainty and included a higher‑growth scenario tied to additional developments that could add roughly 1,000 students to the 10‑year total if sewer and water capacity is expanded as anticipated.

Board members and county commissioners at the joint meeting said the school‑level forecasts and infrastructure timing are valuable for county and transportation planning. The presenters provided the enrollment tables and supporting materials for further review.