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Bay Area poll shows modest majority for regional transit sales-tax options, short of two-thirds threshold

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Summary

At the San Francisco County Transportation Authority meeting Feb. 25, MTC and pollster EMC Research reported mid‑50s support for several sales‑tax based regional transit funding proposals, but support fell short of the two‑thirds threshold required for some ballot pathways and did not shift much with additional messaging.

At a Feb. 25 San Francisco County Transportation Authority meeting, regional officials presented polling that shows mid‑50s support for sales‑tax measures to raise money for Bay Area transit but not the two‑thirds supermajority needed for some ballot approaches.

The Metropolitan Transportation Commission’s Chief Deputy Executive Director Alex Bockelman and Ruth Bernstein, president and CEO of EMC Research, presented results from a multi‑sample poll that tested three frameworks: a half‑cent sales tax in a four‑county configuration (the “1A” option), a hybrid two‑tax package across nine counties, and a variable rate with a higher rate in San Francisco. Bernstein said the poll “was conducted last month” and cautioned it is “a snapshot in time” that was taken immediately after the presidential inauguration.

Why this matters: transit operators including Muni, BART, Caltrain and AC Transit face significant…

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