Bay Area poll shows modest majority for regional transit sales-tax options, short of two-thirds threshold

At a Feb. 25 San Francisco County Transportation Authority meeting, regional officials presented polling that shows mid‑50s support for sales‑tax measures to raise money for Bay Area transit but not the two‑thirds supermajority needed for some ballot approaches.

The Metropolitan Transportation Commission’s Chief Deputy Executive Director Alex Bockelman and Ruth Bernstein, president and CEO of EMC Research, presented results from a multi‑sample poll that tested three frameworks: a half‑cent sales tax in a four‑county configuration (the “1A” option), a hybrid two‑tax package across nine counties, and a variable rate with a higher rate in San Francisco. Bernstein said the poll “was conducted last month” and cautioned it is “a snapshot in time” that was taken immediately after the presidential inauguration.

Why this matters: transit operators including Muni, BART, Caltrain and AC Transit face significant operating shortfalls beginning in fiscal 2026–27. The region’s agencies and advocates are considering a regional revenue measure to avoid service cuts and shore up operating budgets.

The poll found initial support for the half‑cent and the variable‑rate options in the mid‑50s, and weaker support for the hybrid two‑tax approach. Bernstein summarized the finding: support for the 1A and the variable “does exceed a majority, but it is short of the two thirds threshold.” She added that providing additional information or campaign messaging produced little net movement in respondents’ positions in the survey.

Presenters and commissioners emphasized two recurring themes: (1) frequent transit riders were substantially more supportive of a revenue measure—polling showed rider support in the neighborhood of two‑thirds—and (2) there is widespread “tax hesitancy” among the general electorate, driven by cost‑of‑living concerns and lack of trust that revenue would be spent effectively.

Alex Bockelman said the polling follows a months‑long regional working process and is intended to inform ongoing legislative and campaign planning. The Transportation Revenue Select Committee and MTC are pursuing legislative authorization (Senate Bill 63) to allow a regional measure; MTC staff planned to discuss measure principles at the commission the next day.

Commissioners asked detailed questions about geography, polling margins of error, turnout modeling and alternative revenue mechanisms. Commissioner Chin stressed the difference between four‑county and nine‑county approaches and asked why the specific counties were chosen; staff said the four‑county framing reflects where the greatest operator shortfalls are concentrated. Commissioners also asked whether other taxes (for example a gross‑receipts tax on transportation network companies) had been explored; presenters said a range of mechanisms had been considered during the select‑committee process but that scale, political feasibility and legal considerations affect which mechanisms were advanced for this round of testing.

Public comment included concerns that ballot packages not unduly burden lower‑income communities and a caller from San Jose who warned that a square‑foot parcel tax could be inequitable and face legal challenge.

Looking ahead: officials said the poll is one input to refine expenditure priorities, geography and ballot language. MTC and local agencies will use the findings to shape draft measure principles and further polling; any actual ballot placement and final package will require additional political and technical work.

Sources: MTC presentation and EMC Research poll results presented to the San Francisco County Transportation Authority, Feb. 25, 2025.