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County emergency management warns of dry winter, elevated spring fire risk; issues preparedness steps, evacuation-zone map and March 12 alert test
Summary
Coconino County emergency management presented a forecast of exceptionally low snowpack and drought conditions and outlined the county’s state of readiness, including evacuation-mapping, exercises, a March 12 countywide alert test and planned community outreach.
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Coconino County’s interim emergency management director presented the county’s wildfire and emergency-season forecast on Wednesday, saying drought and historically low snowpack this winter increase the risk of an extended and significant wildfire season in spring.
The forecast: National Weather Service representatives told the board much of Northern Arizona had 25–50% of normal precipitation over the last 90 days and record-low snow water equivalent at many SNOTEL sites. The Climate Prediction Center outlook the county cited shows below-normal precipitation and warmer-than-average temperatures through spring months, raising the potential for above-normal wildland fire activity in April and May if dry conditions persist.
County preparedness and mitigation: Tim Carter, interim emergency manager, reviewed the county’s emergency plan, new evacuation-map zones (designed to improve clarity and re-entry sequencing), training and exercise work with partner agencies, and a NAU emergency operations lab program to train students in realistic EOC roles. Carter urged homeowners to create defensible space and “go-bags” and to register for alerts.
Community tools and tests: County staff will launch a public interactive evacuation map (coconino.az.gov/evacmap) and asked residents to sign up or verify information in the county emergency-notification system ahead of a planned countywide alert test on March 12 at noon (text/email to registered devices). Carter said the county will use IPAWS location-based alerts to reach visitors and others who may not be registered.
Mitigation partnerships: County staff described FEMA and USFS grant activity and local work on community wildfire protection plans (CWPP); a planned FEMA-funded project targeting private properties in some communities was discussed as pending approval. Fire chiefs attending supported education and outreach to address insurance and defensible-space concerns and offered operational help where they can.
Board response: Supervisors thanked staff and partners and reiterated calls for expanded community engagement and clear communications to reach residents, visitors and people with access and functional needs.
What’s next: County staff will publish maps and outreach materials, coordinate with APS on PSPS communications, and continue grant and mitigation work with local fire districts.

