County finance presents FY26 revenue forecast: $26.4 million estimate, staff flags ARPA/broadband and EMS billing as accounting items

County finance staff presented a revised revenue estimate for FY26 and walked supervisors through key drivers and assumptions behind the numbers.

The finance presentation (dated as-of Feb. 20) showed a total FY26 revenue estimate of about $26,400,000, with local funding comprising roughly 77% ($20.3 million), state funding about $4.8 million (18%) and federal funding roughly $1.2 million (5%). The presenter said the current projection implies year-over-year revenue growth of about 5.7% compared with the FY25 adopted budget and noted some earlier versions of the forecast had been higher; the estimate was updated repeatedly as more information arrived.

Key assumptions and line-item notes included: - Real-estate tax: the finance officer reviewed historical levy and collection patterns and said the county pplies an estimated collection median of about 97% when calculating expected receipts from the current levy, with delinquency collections materializing in subsequent years. - Personal-property tax: staff reviewed multi-year collection patterns and noted that while the current-year collection rate (in the early months) typically runs around 90–92%, over several years the county historically collects a much larger share of the levy; the FY26 personal-property projection was built from that pattern. - Local sales-and-use tax: the presentation used a working estimate of about $1.5 million for FY26, based on recent monthly inflows and state distributions. - Vehicle-license tax and business-license (BPOL) receipts: staff noted variability and timing differences can cause year-to-year swings; the BPOL forecast was under review and the presenter said she would incorporate board feedback on whether to assume modest growth (6–12% range) versus flat receipts. - EMS billing: staff said EMS-billing revenue has been creating large receipts in the miscellaneous revenue bucket and recommended creating a dedicated revenue line or fund going forward so EMS reimbursements are tracked separately from truly miscellaneous or one-time receipts. - ARPA/broadband reimbursements: staff said the county has spent the majority of the ARPA allocation for the broadband project in FY25 and that roughly $700,000 in expenditures to date could be recorded as FY25 revenue realizations; remaining ARPA balances tied to broadband (about $309,000 in the presenter ssessment) could be recognized in FY26 if expenditures occur in that year.

Board members praised the detailed methodology and asked staff to leave the forecasting approach and assumptions as part of the record for use in future cycles. Supervisors also asked staff to confirm certain line items and provide additional detail for the March 11 budget workshop where revenue and department requests will be revisited.

Ending: Finance staff said they will circulate the detailed line-item forecast, verify past-year agency payments, and return with an updated revenue projection and departmental expenditure summaries at the next scheduled workshop.