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North Clackamas SD 12 projects relatively flat district enrollment but major growth in Nelson feeder raises capacity concerns
Summary
At a Feb. 22 board work session staff said districtwide enrollment is expected to remain largely flat over the next decade, but the Nelson feeder pattern could add more than 500 students in nine years, prompting discussion of portables, boundary changes and further analysis.
At a Feb. 22 work session, North Clackamas School District staff reported that districtwide enrollment is projected to remain relatively flat over the next nine to ten years, while the Nelson feeder pattern is forecast to gain more than 500 students, creating capacity pressures at middle- and high-school levels.
The district’s demographer, Flow Analytics, provided a 10-year outlook the district updates annually. Staff said the capacity analysis uses standard assumptions — 25 students per elementary classroom and 28 students per middle and high school classroom — and a simple formula based on an assumed number of classrooms per building. Cindy (project administrator) explained this yields a maximum-capacity estimate that does not capture non-classroom uses such as cafeterias, gyms, parking or specialized program space.
The…
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