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UK economist tells committee economy will grow more slowly; payroll-tax growth still positive
Summary
Dr. Michael Clark of the University of Kentucky told the committee that Lexington’s economy should continue to grow but at a slower, more typical pace than the post‑pandemic surge. Staff forecast payroll‑tax revenue growth of about 4.5% in 2025 and 4.1% in 2026 and warned that net‑profits collections are volatile.
The Budget, Finance and Economic Development Committee received the University of Kentucky’s annual Lexington economic outlook and occupational‑tax forecast from Dr. Michael Clark, director of the Center for Business and Economic Research at UK’s Gatton College.
Clark told the committee that, after an unusually strong post‑pandemic run, employment and wage growth were moderating and returning toward pre‑pandemic norms. “Despite a lot of things going on, the economy actually seems to be in relatively good shape,” Clark said, while warning that growth rates will be lower than the extraordinary gains…
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