Lexington 01 enrollment projections show post‑pandemic shifts; district uses multiple methods for forecasting

LEXINGTON 01 — Dr. Rivers presented the district’s enrollment picture and projections at the Feb. 13 Board of Trustees workshop, explaining how average daily membership (ADM) differs from head‑count enrollment and how those measures affect state funding and staffing.

“Average daily membership and student enrollment are head count — they’re two different things,” Dr. Rivers said, describing how ADM reflects attendance over reporting windows and therefore drives state allocations. She told trustees that while Lexington 01 saw steady annual growth of roughly 2–3% before the pandemic, ADM peaked in 2022–23 and had since declined slightly; the 45‑day ADM cited during the presentation was approximately 26,324 and the district’s projection for the coming year was roughly 26,155.

Why it matters: ADM and enrollment projections directly determine staffing needs and state funding. Trustees were shown how school‑level differences can create “bubbles” that require adding teachers in August and how the district uses multiple projection methods — an outside demographer, a regional council of governments projection, and linear averaging — and then averages those results.

Key points - Measurement: Dr. Rivers explained that ADM (used for funding) reflects attendance across reporting days and can differ materially from head count enrollment. - Projection method: Lexington 01 uses three projection methods (external demographer, Catawba Regional Council of Governments, and linear grade‑level averaging) and averages the results to estimate future needs. - School‑level variance: Trustees saw school‑by‑school tables showing some elementary and middle schools with enrollment above or below projections; Dr. Rivers said those differences affect whether a principal needs an additional FTE. - Preschool: The district’s preschool program (PK‑3 and PK‑4) does not factor into state funding, she said, but the number of preschool classrooms affects facilities and staffing. PowerSchool shows roughly 802 preschool students across district elementary sites (figure from slide as presented). - Drivers of recent change: Dr. Rivers said charter openings (she cited American Leadership Academy as an example) and virtual options were among factors that lowered enrollment in a specific year; she noted students sometimes return to the district later.

Supporting detail Dr. Rivers walked trustees through the district’s 45‑day and 135‑day reporting cadence, noting that staffing decisions for the coming year start from the district’s estimated enrollments on the 90th day and that HR will use those figures to set FTEs. She emphasized the importance of accurate PowerSchool coding and attendance reporting because errors or inconsistent coding across districts affect the proportionate share used in the new state funding formula.

Quotes “Average daily membership and student enrollment are head count — they’re two different things,” Dr. Rivers said. “When you think about ADM, average daily membership in a week, 10 days, or whatever, if only 80 students come to school…you would then get funded for only 80% of the enrollment.”

What the presentation did not assert Dr. Rivers provided current ADM figures and described projection methodology; she did not propose specific staffing or budget motions during the workshop. Staffing allocations and final budget choices will follow later steps administered by HR and the finance office.

Ending Trustees were asked to indicate data interests on a compiled “data landscape” and to return selections; Dr. Rivers and district staff said they will use trustees’ input to plan how enrollment, outcomes and other datasets are presented during the year.