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Task force hears drought outlook: combined storage about 51% and La Niña may mean drier, hotter months ahead
Summary
Staff reported combined storage in Lakes Travis and Buchanan is roughly 51% and warned that transitioning to La Niña conditions typically brings hotter, drier weather for the region; short rains upstream produced some inflows but long‑term deficit persists.
Austin Water staff told the Water Forward Task Force that combined storage in Lakes Travis and Buchanan is approximately 51% and that recent inflows remain lower than historical averages.
Staff reported localized rainfall of about an inch in upstream locations and said inflows may improve slightly, but the long‑term rainfall deficit across the Hill Country is substantial; staff cited a Texas Water Development Board map showing multi‑year deficits in some counties.
Staff said climate outlook indicators point toward a La Niña period for the region, which historically correlates with hotter and drier conditions locally. Staff noted that Austin typically receives more rain pulses in spring and fall (May–June and the autumn months) and that those windows may determine whether combined storage declines further over the summer.
Task force members asked for the periodic lake‑level and NOAA seasonal forecast updates to be reinstated in meetings after a recent decision to trim agenda content during plan updates. Staff agreed to restore regular basin/forecast updates to task force meetings.
