Kelly, LCRA water operations staff, told the Lower Colorado River Authority Water Operations Committee on Jan. 21 that statewide drought coverage is comparable to January 2024 but the most extreme categories are more widespread and basin inflows remain below long‑term medians.

"We're gonna start with a look at the US Drought Monitor," Kelly said, and summarized that about 53% of the state is in some level of drought compared with about 59% a year earlier, while D3 (severe) and D4 (exceptional) drought area is roughly 10% higher this year.

The presentation said December inflows to the Highland Lakes were 8,711 acre‑feet, about one quarter of the long‑term median for December, and that combined inflow for the previous water year was about 576,160 acre‑feet (roughly 49.5% of the long‑term annual average). Kelly reported combined storage in Lakes Travis and Buchanan was 1,045,045 acre‑feet (about 52% full) on Jan. 1 and had fallen to just over 1,028,581 acre‑feet as of the morning of the meeting.

The committee heard that, despite the basin still holding more water than during the 2008–2015 drought of record (about 281,641 acre‑feet more on the chart shown), recent months have been the fourth consecutive month of drier and warmer‑than‑normal conditions across the basin. The Climate Prediction Center outlook cited in the presentation shows elevated odds of below‑normal precipitation for January–March 2025 and above‑normal temperatures for January–May.

Committee members discussed the practical implications for municipal and agricultural customers. Kelly said March 1, 2025 is the next decision date under the water management plan for whether interruptible stored water will be made available in the Gulf Coast, Lakeside and Pierce Ranch divisions. The presentation stated interruptible stored water access requires combined storage above 1,300,000 acre‑feet; current projections give less than a 5% chance of reaching that threshold. Garwood operates under the 1999 water management plan language and, for 2025, will be limited to 18,100 acre‑feet of interruptible stored water while retaining access to roughly 100,000 acre‑feet of other supplies; Kelly noted Garwood used a little over 500 acre‑feet of interruptible stored water last year.

Kelly also described firm‑customer actions that could follow a declaration of Stage 2 of the Drought Contingency Plan — including limits such as once‑weekly landscape watering — and explained the numeric triggers: a Stage 2 decision could follow if combined storage drops below 900,000 acre‑feet, or if on March 1 storage is below 1,100,000 acre‑feet and December–February inflows to the Highland Lakes total less than the 25th percentile (about 62,690 acre‑feet). As of the meeting, December inflows were 8,711 acre‑feet and January to date were about 6,000 acre‑feet; Kelly calculated the system would need roughly 48,000 acre‑feet in the remainder of January and February to avoid moving to Stage 2.

The committee received an update on the Arbuckle off‑channel reservoir: Kelly said Arbuckle had reached about 103.94 feet mean sea level the morning of the meeting and was expected to hit the 104.0‑foot "hole point" that will move the project into an observation phase; that storage corresponds to roughly 39,890 acre‑feet and about 75% full.

Chair Martin and board members praised the LCRA staff effort in bringing Arbuckle online and noted the value of added storage in the agency portfolio amid continued regional growth.

The presentation included time‑series charts of Lake Travis (about 637.5 ft msl at the meeting, roughly 29.18 feet below the January average) and Lake Buchanan (about 1,002.72 ft msl, roughly 7.86 feet below the January average), and a table showing the system entered the calendar year with about 210,000 acre‑feet more combined storage than on Jan. 1, 2024.

No formal actions were taken on the basin conditions update; Kelly concluded by asking for questions and the committee moved on to the next agenda topic.