Fox Canyon GMA asks court to extend Las Posas initial operating yield while modeling disputes are resolved

The Fox Canyon Groundwater Management Agency board on Jan. 22 voted to recommend that the court continue the basin’s initial operating yield of 40,000 acre‑feet through water year 2025 while consultants complete a basin optimization yield study and modeling questions are resolved.

Jason, assistant agency counsel, told the board the basin optimization yield study—required by the Las Posas Valley adjudication judgment—cannot be completed until December 2025 at the earliest, in part because of outstanding modeling issues and a pending contract or scope‑of‑work agreement with United for use of its coastal model. "The operating yield is the amount of water in the basin that can be used by water right holders," Jason said, using the common analogy: "we're talking about the size of the pie when we're talking about the operating yield." The recommended extension would apply only if Dudek's analysis shows no adverse effect on the agency’s ability to achieve sustainability by 2040.

The board received technical and stakeholder committee input. PAC and TAC representatives asked for modest schedule adjustments to allow TAC additional time to review model simulations; PAC and TAC also urged use of United’s model if an agreement can be reached. Jason said Dudek’s current schedule targets board adoption of a completed study in December 2025, but the schedule assumes no modeling impediments.

United’s water resources supervisor, John Lindquist, told the board he had recently returned from leave and did not have a final update but said United is prepared to support the agency and expected to provide a yes/no update on the model‑access question within about two weeks.

Jason told the board that because the study cannot be completed before the start of water year 2025, staff recommends that the board ask counsel to seek a court action that leaves the initial operating yield at 40,000 acre‑feet for water year 2025 and delays any ramp‑down decisions until after the study is finished. He said extending the 40,000 acre‑foot operating yield for one additional year would likely "just slightly increase the rate of ramp down over the successive 13, 14, 15 years until 2040," with Dudek’s analysis to provide exact numbers.

Russ McLaughlin, counsel for the Los Posas Farming Group defendants, recommended staff ask the court for an extension or deadline adjustment under the judgment’s provisions (he cited section 5.2.8) rather than by direct amendment; Jason and outside counsel said they would craft appropriate language consistent with pending appeals and the court’s jurisdiction.

After discussion, the board approved a motion to receive the presentation and authorize counsel and staff to recommend to the court that the initial operating yield of 40,000 acre‑feet be extended through water year 2025, provided Dudek’s analysis demonstrates no adverse effect to achieved sustainability by 2040. The board vote carried by roll call.

Background: Under the adjudication judgment the basin optimization yield study must set operating yields for five‑year increments through 2039 and establish any required ramp‑down. The board and consultant have proposed a revised schedule that would complete the study by December 2025; PAC/TAC recommended modest additional time for TAC simulation review and noted a 70‑day review window under the amended judgment. The delay stems from workload, pending modeling agreements with United, and the complexity of analyses required by the judgment.

Next steps: Dudek will complete the impact analysis on the effect of keeping the 40,000 acre‑foot yield through water year 2025. Staff and outside counsel will prepare a court filing consistent with the board motion and the judgment’s procedural provisions.