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Consultant presents climate vulnerability assessment: increased rainfall and sea-level rise raise flood and closure risk at Santa Barbara Airport
Summary
ESA presented a climate vulnerability assessment for the airport finding that projected precipitation increases and sea-level rise will raise the frequency of runway and apron flooding, increase closure risks and generate cumulative economic losses without adaptation. Staff outlined adaptation strategies and public comment opportunities.
A consultant from Environmental Science Associates (ESA) presented a climate vulnerability assessment and risk evaluation for the Santa Barbara Airport, concluding that projected increases in extreme precipitation combined with sea-level rise will materially increase the frequency and extent of flooding on airport property and raise the likelihood of runway closures and operational disruption.
Amber Ings, an engineer and hydrologist with ESA, told commissioners the analysis used California’s 2024 Ocean Protection Council (OPC) sea-level rise guidance and modeled three SLR scenarios: near term (about 0.8 ft, roughly by mid-century), midterm (about 2.5 ft) and long term (about 6.6 ft). ESA also modeled projected changes to precipitation extremes under regional climate scenarios. The consultant reported the following findings: - Precipitation extremes are projected to become more frequent. An event that historically occurred every 20 years (about 7.5 inches of rain in 24 hours) is modeled to occur as often as once every five years in future precipitation scenarios. - Flooding in the airport is currently dominated by creek and runoff flooding rather than direct ocean inundation. Increased precipitation substantially raises the likelihood of northwest-quadrant flooding and runway inundation. Under higher sea-level rise scenarios (around 2.5 ft and above), the frequency of runway-edge and apron flooding increases markedly; at 6.6 ft of sea-level rise some airport areas would be regularly tidal. - ESA identified the highest-vulnerability assets as the northwest general aviation aprons, primary runways (both runway pairs), the glide slope antenna and associated navigational equipment, the air traffic control tower and sanitary/storm sewer infrastructure. - Economic analysis (performed by a specialist firm engaged by ESA) estimated cumulative losses from average storms through 2075 could reach about $68 million, with severe storms potentially producing losses in excess of $158 million over the same period. ESA noted passengers would bear a substantial share of those losses (estimated up to 71% in the study), while airlines and airport revenues would also be affected; the report used 2024 dollars.
Ings summarized adaptation approaches that will be examined in subsequent project phases: accommodation (modifying operations and preparing for intermittent flooding), protection (localized or systemwide flood defenses), retreat (longer-term land-use responses) and hybrids that combine these strategies. The study also modeled storm-drain capacity and lagoon breach scenarios and noted that breaching behavior of the sand berm at the lagoon mouth can strongly affect lagoon levels and backwater flooding.
ESA’s public comment period is open and the report is posted on the airport’s website; staff said next steps include an adaptation planning phase with further community engagement and possible updates to the Local Coastal Program.
Commissioners asked technical questions about historical creek-channel changes, model assumptions and the economic analysis. Director Haster and ESA noted many near-term adaptation steps are possible but that long-term scenarios (multiple feet of sea-level rise) will require strategic planning and could affect decisions about multi-decade capital investments such as FBO redevelopment.
