Envision Eugene advisory committee flags data gaps, errors in annual growth-monitoring report

Envision Eugene’s technical advisory committee reviewed a draft of the city’s 2024 growth-monitoring report on June 5 and identified several data issues and gaps that delayed parts of the publication.

Committee chair Tiffany Edwards said staff had incorporated prior meeting comments to make the report more accessible, but several analytic sections were left out or marked for revision because the underlying datasets were not ready. "We have incorporated comments, that we discussed in the in the last couple of meetings. There were great word suggestion changes to make, the language more accessible and clear," Edwards told the committee.

Why it matters: the report is the city’s annual snapshot of population, housing and employment production used for monitoring adopted forecasts and evaluating policies such as middle-housing code changes and efficiency measures. Missing or corrected data affects trend comparisons and how staff will present findings in next year’s report.

Key issues raised

- Portland State University population forecast error. Committee staff described a mistake in PSU’s second preliminary population forecast that failed to incorporate university (group-quarters) growth the city had supplied. The city filed a formal objection during PSU’s objection period after the error was discovered. Staff said they chose not to update the report with the second preliminary forecast because it did not reflect the corrected numbers.

- Housing-sales dataset migration (ARLID2). The Regional Land Information Database is migrating to a new version (referred to in the meeting as "Arlid 2"), and the city has not finished importing the new warehouse into its system. Elena, who leads staff work on the sales and land datasets, told the committee that Arlid 2 "we should be dealing with a lot less duplicative information," and that once the updated warehouse is imported the sales figures will be returned to the report.

- Density methodology revision. Staff said they are revising the methodology used to calculate monitoring density. Because the team will recalculate density back to the start of the monitoring period (December 2012), the monitoring table and several efficiency-measure calculations were struck out in the draft. Staff said they kept the adopted 20-year forecast density in the report where it remains unchanged, but monitoring data tied to the revised method will be republished when completed.

Committee discussion and follow-up

Committee members asked how to preserve apples-to-apples comparisons across years when methodology or source files change. Elena said the ARLID2 migration will affect historical records but staff plan to recalculate back to 2012 so the series remains comparable. Jeff Rek, an incoming member, asked whether the timing of the missing 2024 data would force the 2025 report to rely on 2023 figures or require a revision to the 2024 report: "Is the 2025 report gonna refer back to 2023, or are we gonna have a revision to the 2024 report after these data become available?" Staff replied they expect to incorporate updated 2024 data into next year’s reporting and will present options to the committee.

Several members noted practical caveats with recorded sales data, including non–arms-length entries (very low-dollar recorded sales) and the difference between sale and recording dates. Committee member Kim R. Scott (an incoming member and realtor) offered to share RMLS numbers to supplement the record: "I'll send you the RMLS. The average sales price in, Eugene this year versus last year at this time ... increased by 1.2%, making it 278,300 ... it's only gone up, like, 4 or $5,000 this year." Staff also said they have used Redfin, Zillow and other market sources alongside the regional database for cross-checking.

Staff actions and timeline

- Staff will recalculate density using the revised methodology back to the monitoring start (December 2012) so historic comparisons remain consistent. - Staff reported they filed a formal objection to PSU’s population forecast after discovering the incorporation error and will not adopt the incorrect second preliminary forecast in the current report. - Staff will complete import and quality checks for Arlid 2 (regional land information database) and return updated housing-sales figures to the committee once the data are validated; Elena received credit from colleagues for identifying a bug that LCOG has since fixed. - The committee agreed staff will circulate the draft with a follow-up email and a deadline for additional comments so members who missed the meeting can review and flag any remaining issues.

What’s next

Staff said they expect to bring the updated density methodology and housing-sales figures to Etech when both datasets are ready, and that those updates will inform future efficiency-measure and urban-growth strategy work. Because several monitoring tables were struck out in the current draft, the report will note where data were missing and how staff plan to revise the series when corrected numbers are available.