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Demographer RSP forecasts about 300-student growth for Dallas Center‑Grimes over five years
Summary
RSP presented a district enrollment analysis projecting roughly 300 additional students over five years, driven largely by planned housing; the consultant flagged birth-rate declines and open‑enrollment dynamics as constraints.
Good evening. RSP, the district’s demographer, told the Dallas Center‑Grimes Community School District board that the district is likely to grow by about 300 students over the next five years, with most gains at the elementary and high school levels.
RSP planner Jenna Wallace said the forecast combines four analysis parts: enrollment and demographics, development and growth trends, yield (students per housing unit) and migration, and the projection model. “The report…is broken down into our 4 main parts,” Wallace said. She told trustees the district’s most likely scenario shows about 300 more students districtwide, with elementary growth of about 140 students (roughly a 10% increase) and smaller gains at middle school and high school.
Why it matters: the district’s capacity calculations and facility planning — including discussions of a possible high‑school addition — depend on these projections. RSP said the forecast assumes some near‑term building activity that the consultant classed as “current or active,” plus additional potential units over a five‑ to ten‑year horizon.
Key points from the presentation - RSP’s model uses fine‑grained “planning areas” (neighborhoods, complexes) rather than census blocks to estimate local yields (students per 100 housing units). The district’s historical yield for single‑family homes is high: about 59 students per 100 single‑family units. Multifamily yields fewer students per unit. - Active and near‑term developments account for about 1,400 units the consultant judged likely to start within five years; the consultant listed roughly 5,800 potential units over ten years but warned timing is uncertain. - Birth‑rate trends are a limiting factor: RSP noted slightly lower live births in Polk and Dallas counties, which reduces the pool of future kindergarteners unless the district increases its market share. - Open‑enrollment and out‑of‑district students matter: RSP reported 380–420 students living outside the DCG boundary attend DCG schools, with Johnston and Waukee as the largest contributors.
Board questions and clarifications
Trustees pressed on assumptions about which subdivisions will build first and how yields for new units were modeled. Wallace said the model differentiates by housing type, price and planning area; she also noted that the projected yield for future units may differ from the district’s overall, historical yield because of differences in unit mix and price. Trustee discussion also centered on how many of the Dallas Center developments (Burkett, Skyview and another plat) would come online and how rapidly: RSP said local city officials expect more activity but the timing depends on developer decisions and infrastructure.
RSP also reported strong model accuracy historically (last year’s projection was about 98.9% accurate), and said the district’s year‑to‑year cohort movement (how classes grow or shrink as they advance) is built into the forecasts.
What the district will do next
RSP recommended annual updates, continued monitoring of birth‑rate and legislative changes (for example, ESA rollouts), and scenario planning tied to the near‑term developments the consultant identified. Trustees and staff said they will use the forecast in facility planning and in bond and budget timelines.
