Budget conference hears revised revenue estimates; committee adopts updated insurance tax figures

The Committee of Conference on House Bill 1 and House Bill 2 on June 8 heard updated revenue estimates from the Department of Revenue Administration and the New Hampshire Insurance Department and reached a tentative agreement to adopt new insurance premium tax figures that raise the FY2025 base and increase projected receipts for the coming biennium.

The Department of Revenue Administration (DRA) presented a set of ranges based on data through May, showing a narrower but still substantial spread in projected receipts depending on how June collections — a large month for business tax estimate payments — ultimately perform. "With May data, we have 11 out of the 12 months. So at this point, we're really only estimating June," Commissioner Lindsey Stepp said, explaining DRA's practice of using the current fiscal year as a base and applying growth rates to produce low and high scenarios.

Why it matters: lawmakers must agree on an agreed revenue baseline before they can finalize spending in HB1 (the operating budget) and HB2 (policy and dedicated funds). Small changes in revenue assumptions translate into millions of dollars available for programs, reserve ("rainy day") deposits or back-of-budget reductions.

DRA highlighted that business taxes are the single largest source of uncertainty.…