Edmond workshop hears conservative budget assumptions after economist warns households are "stretched"

Dr. Russell Evans, an economist with Regional Economic Advisors and the Thornburg Collectorate, told the Edmond City Council at its special budget kickoff workshop that national and regional conditions leave households “stretched” and that the city should budget conservatively for fiscal 2025 while planning for a possible rebound in fiscal 2026.

Evans said the national labor market has moved toward balance after Federal Reserve rate increases, but consumer credit is strained: household debt-service ratios and delinquency rates are near levels last seen in 2012. “We have you down 1.4% to end this fiscal year and up 6.6% next year,” Evans said, summarizing the firm’s sales-and-use-tax forecast for Edmond while noting that forecasts assume no outside shock such as a major stock-market correction or abrupt policy change.

The forecast matters because sales and use taxes make up the largest share of Edmond’s tax revenue. Kathy Bayless, speaking for city finance staff, told the council that the city budget assumes flat revenue for the coming year and reminded the council that it must adopt the budget by June 15. “We have to adopt the budget by June 15,” Bayless said.

Why this matters: sales and use taxes fund operations, capital improvements and public safety staffing. Bayless said sales and use collections total roughly $105,000,000 in the current fiscal year; the city allocates those receipts roughly 60% to capital and enterprise distributions and splits the sales-tax portion so that 2 percentage points…