WCPSS projects modest short‑term enrollment growth after pandemic decline

Wake County Public School System staff presented the system’s 10‑year membership forecast during the board work session on Feb. 24, 2025. The presentation used the district’s PMR‑2 (principal monthly report month‑2) membership count of 61,115 for the 2024‑25 school year as the starting point for projections and estimated a net gain of roughly 1,305 students for the 2025‑26 school year.

The forecast team — led by Marcela Rory, senior director of long‑range planning for WCPSS, with analysts from Wake County government and Carolina Demography at UNC’s Carolina Population Center — described the methodology and key assumptions that underlie the projections. Presenters said the forecast combines WCPSS membership counts with county and state demographic data, birth‑to‑kindergarten ratios, migration patterns and observed ‘‘market share’’ (students attending charter, private or homeschool options). The PMR‑2 figure of 61,115 represents a net gain of about 1,120 students compared with the prior year’s PMR‑2, the…