WCPSS projects modest short‑term enrollment growth after pandemic decline

Wake County Public School System staff presented the system’s 10‑year membership forecast during the board work session on Feb. 24, 2025. The presentation used the district’s PMR‑2 (principal monthly report month‑2) membership count of 61,115 for the 2024‑25 school year as the starting point for projections and estimated a net gain of roughly 1,305 students for the 2025‑26 school year.

The forecast team — led by Marcela Rory, senior director of long‑range planning for WCPSS, with analysts from Wake County government and Carolina Demography at UNC’s Carolina Population Center — described the methodology and key assumptions that underlie the projections. Presenters said the forecast combines WCPSS membership counts with county and state demographic data, birth‑to‑kindergarten ratios, migration patterns and observed ‘‘market share’’ (students attending charter, private or homeschool options). The PMR‑2 figure of 61,115 represents a net gain of about 1,120 students compared with the prior year’s PMR‑2, the presentation said.

Why this matters: enrollment forecasts inform capacity planning, school construction and staffing. The forecast team emphasized that small percentage changes can translate into large absolute student counts across a district of Wake County’s size. Board members asked that the administration emphasize absolute student counts as well as percentage changes when presenting planning materials.

Key findings and assumptions

- PMR‑2 baseline: The forecast uses the district’s PMR‑2 membership as the base measure and adjusts the series annually for attendance irregularities and other reporting issues. The presentation noted adjustments to the ADM series for pandemic years.

- Short‑term projection: The forecast projects a net increase of about 1,305 month‑2 ADM students (roughly 0.8%) in 2025‑26 and steady month‑2 ADM increases through 2033‑34. Over the ten‑year horizon the model projects about a 10% net increase in membership.

- Charter and nonpublic enrollment: WCPSS charter school membership grew by about 1,176 students (roughly 6.6%) in 2024‑25, the presenters reported. The forecast team identified one new charter scheduled to open in fall 2025; charter growth and build‑out of existing charters are factored into near‑term projections. Data on private‑school and homeschool enrollments for 2024‑25 will not be available from the state until July 2025 and will be incorporated into future forecasts.

- Births and kindergarten ratios: The forecast models kindergarten enrollment from births five years earlier. Presenters said pre‑pandemic birth‑to‑kindergarten ratios were about 0.93 and fell during the pandemic to about 0.81–0.82; those ratios have trended upward in recent years and the team projects a gradual return toward pre‑pandemic levels.

Uncertainties and watch list

Presenters identified four items they will continue to monitor and that could change the forecast materially: expansion of vouchers and their effect on private‑school market share; the number of students who did not enroll during the pandemic but may return; persistence of pandemic‑era choices such as homeschooling; and whether charter school applications and enrollment fully build out as presently projected.

Materials and next steps

The forecast team provided the board with a memo to Superintendent Eric Taylor and county manager Angela Ellis, an executive summary, a spreadsheet of 10‑year projections and the slide presentation. Staff said they will continue to monitor the Opportunity Scholarship (voucher) program and update future forecasts to incorporate new private‑school and homeschool data when state releases become available.

Presenters named in the meeting included Marcela Rory (senior director of long‑range planning, WCPSS), Lindsay Davis (senior budget and management analyst, Wake County government), Dr. Nathan Dollar (director, Carolina Demography, UNC Carolina Population Center) and Christopher Smith (Carolina Demography/ demographic analytic advisors). Board members asked for clearer presentation of absolute student counts in future materials.