NH Department of Revenue outlines FY25–FY27 revenue ranges; committee provisionally accepts several agency estimates

The House Ways and Means Committee received an update from the New Hampshire Department of Revenue Administration on state revenue estimates for fiscal year 2025 and projected growth for fiscal years 2026 and 2027, Commissioner Lindsey Stepp told the committee.

Stepp said DRA runs five scenarios to estimate year-end results for each tax type, then selects a “reasonable high and low” from those scenarios rather than simply reporting absolute extremes. "We update them at the end of every month," she said, describing DRA’s approach as a blend of actual year-to-date receipts and assumptions either versus plan or versus the prior year.

Why it matters: the committee uses DRA’s ranges and recommended growth rates as the primary inputs for drafting the House’s revenue resolution and the operating budget. Small shifts in large revenue lines drive the surplus the legislature can spend or commit.

Key takeaways from DRA’s presentation

- Business taxes: DRA reported business taxes are running below plan year-to-date and below the prior year, a trend Stepp attributed in part to businesses “right-sizing” estimated payments after an earlier period of elevated corporate profits. DRA presented a wide FY25 range and recommended applying a 3–8% growth rate for 2026 and 2027…