Mesa Public Schools projects further enrollment decline, seeks $18 million in payroll reductions; board elects new president and approves organizational delegaT

Mesa Public Schools administrators told the district'025 governing board during a study session that projected enrollment declines for the 2025'026 school year will materially shrink revenue and force staffing reductions to close a budget gap.

District leaders said the decline in births nationwide and locally will depress enrollment across most schools in the district and that close to 90% of the district'0s operating budget is payroll. The administration said it has identified roughly $18 million in payroll expense savings as part of a multi-part plan that also accounts for a projected decline of about 1,800 students next year.

Why it matters: the district's expected student loss would reduce formula revenue by roughly $17 million under current funding assumptions, administrators said, and other factors such as the expiration of Prop 123 and uncertain legislative action add to the revenue risk. Because staffing is the dominant cost, administrators told the board they must address personnel expense to balance the budget while protecting classroom stability where possible.

District officials said they are planning to preserve as many instructional positions as possible and to give affected staff extended notice. Assistant Superintendent of Human Resources Michael Wing said administrators have committed to informing individuals affected this school year by early February — providing four to five months' notice in many cases — and that certified contract renewals will be offered in mid March in compliance with state timelines.

What the administration presented - Enrollment trends: Dr. Chad Strom (enrollment lead) reviewed national and local demographic data showing long-term declines in birth rates and a long-term prediction of lower K'012 enrollment through 2030. He said Mesa's fertility rates have fallen substantially and forecasted an overall district decline concentrated across many schools rather than concentrated losses at a few sites. - Budget inputs: Scott Thompson, assistant superintendent for business services, said the state guarantees a minimum 2%…