Mesa Public Schools projects further enrollment decline, seeks $18 million in payroll reductions; board elects new president and approves organizational delegaT

Mesa Public Schools administrators told the district'025 governing board during a study session that projected enrollment declines for the 2025'026 school year will materially shrink revenue and force staffing reductions to close a budget gap.

District leaders said the decline in births nationwide and locally will depress enrollment across most schools in the district and that close to 90% of the district'0s operating budget is payroll. The administration said it has identified roughly $18 million in payroll expense savings as part of a multi-part plan that also accounts for a projected decline of about 1,800 students next year.

Why it matters: the district's expected student loss would reduce formula revenue by roughly $17 million under current funding assumptions, administrators said, and other factors such as the expiration of Prop 123 and uncertain legislative action add to the revenue risk. Because staffing is the dominant cost, administrators told the board they must address personnel expense to balance the budget while protecting classroom stability where possible.

District officials said they are planning to preserve as many instructional positions as possible and to give affected staff extended notice. Assistant Superintendent of Human Resources Michael Wing said administrators have committed to informing individuals affected this school year by early February — providing four to five months' notice in many cases — and that certified contract renewals will be offered in mid March in compliance with state timelines.

What the administration presented - Enrollment trends: Dr. Chad Strom (enrollment lead) reviewed national and local demographic data showing long-term declines in birth rates and a long-term prediction of lower K'012 enrollment through 2030. He said Mesa's fertility rates have fallen substantially and forecasted an overall district decline concentrated across many schools rather than concentrated losses at a few sites. - Budget inputs: Scott Thompson, assistant superintendent for business services, said the state guarantees a minimum 2% per-pupil funding increase (statutorily protected) that translates to about $8 million on current estimates, but that the district faces an approximately $17 million revenue reduction tied to the projected 1,800-pupil decline. He estimated the district was "sitting at just about a $12,000,000 deficit" before mitigation items and later explained the net position after offsets. - Offsets and assumptions: administrators listed possible offsets including the 2% statutory increase, modest reductions in retirement rates, and savings from efficiencies; they estimated roughly $14 million in savings from a mix of items, leaving a narrow net improvement in the near term (administration summarized the net outcome as about $2 million in adjustment after near-term offsets, while continuing to pursue further payroll savings). - Payroll focus: because payroll is roughly 88—90% of expenditures, officials emphasized that one-time supply cuts cannot address the structural shortfall and that staffing models, consolidations and reductions are unavoidable if revenue assumptions hold. - Timeline and process: staffing allocations were distributed to schools in early January; principals must submit staffing sheets by January 24'031 or February 7 (depends on school level). The administration intends to provide a certified reduction-in-force (RIF) overview Jan. 28 and a proposed list by Feb. 11, with certified contracts issued March 17 (the earliest date allowed by statute this year). The board was told the May budget revision and a July 15 statutory adoption date remain part of the calendar. - Carryforward and reserves: Thompson reviewed the district's carryforward (reserves) history, noting carryforward grew in recent years to roughly $40 million during the COVID and ESSER period but that those funds are one-time savings that cannot permanently close structural gaps.

Staffing and program specifics discussed - Human resources: Wing said the district will use statutory procedures for certified and classified reductions in force, including options for involuntary transfers and nonrenewal notices under state law. He said extent of certified reductions will be clearer after schools submit final staffing requests. - Department reductions: administrators said a review of department-level organizational charts has identified 144 FTE reductions districtwide, including three administrator positions, targeted to reduce redundancies while maintaining core services. - Title I and elementary specials: the administration described a new Title I allocation model to shift more dollars to high-need schools (grade- and poverty-band weighted per-pupil allocations). Officials said 10 schools that previously received Title I per-pupil funding will fall below the 40% threshold and be affected by the change. Separately, an elementary "specials" redesign (art, PE, music, media) was presented; administrators said costed models ranged from $11 million to $22 million and that a minimal expansion (for example, adding choir as a built-in special) would add roughly 13 FTE and about $1.3 million.

Board questions and next steps Board members repeatedly emphasized prioritizing frontline staff who directly serve students. Members asked about engagement of teachers and community in decisions; administrators said building- and department-level discussions have been ongoing and that the district has worked with the Mesa Education Association and school leaders in the design work. Board members requested additional study-session time and asked for better community outreach and clarity on implementation timing.

Votes and organizational actions at the regular meeting The board conducted its organizational meeting and approved several routine annual items. Key recorded actions from the meeting (motion text summarized from the agenda or public transcript): - Election of board president: Courtney Davis was elected president (motion moved and seconded; vote 5-0). - Election of board clerk: Lacey Chaffee was elected clerk (motion carried; recorded vote 3 yeas, 2 nays). - Delegation of authority: the board delegated to the superintendent/designee authority to sign and deliver state and federal reports and certain personnel notices on behalf of the board for the 2025 calendar year (approved 5-0). - Delegation to president/clerk and purchasing delegations: the board approved delegations to the president and/or clerk for signing specified legal documents and delegated purchasing-card authority to named administrators for 2025 (approved 5-0). - Settlement authorization: the board delegated authority to the superintendent or designee to enter into legal settlement agreements not to exceed $25,000 pending governing board approval for payment (approved 5-0). - Routine appointments and treasurer: the board approved appointments for hearing officers, employee benefit trustees, purchasing protests representative, and named the chief financial officer as the student activities treasurer for 2025 (all motions approved by recorded votes listed in the minutes; most were unanimous). - Consent agenda and personnel: the board approved personnel requests and the consent agenda (the consent vote recorded as four yeas with one abstention on specified minutes). - Motion to move into executive session on meet-and-confer negotiations: the board voted to enter executive session under ARS 38-431.03(A)(5) for instruction to representatives on employee negotiations (vote 5-0); the board returned to adjourn.

What the board asked staff to do next Board members asked staff to: provide additional study-session time on budget/staffing, continue to prioritize classroom instructional positions, present more detailed staffing-impact scenarios, and expand community outreach and communication about proposed actions (including timelines for RIFs, contract dates and Title I changes). Several members also urged careful attention to music and arts offerings as part of the elementary specials redesign.

Ending The administration said it will return with incremental updates and refined budget figures after legislative and state data updates, and the board scheduled additional budget study sessions to give members time to ask questions before formal action deadlines.