Consultants tell Chandler Unified board enrollment decline driven by aging population, ESA program and long-term birth-rate trends

Summary

Applied Economics presented 25 years of enrollment and demographic data showing sustained declines driven primarily by aging household composition, lower birth rates and use of Empowerment Scholarship Accounts; presenters said new infill and multifamily development will moderate but not reverse declines in the next decade.

Consultants from Applied Economics told the Chandler Unified School District Governing Board on Oct. 22 that the district’s recent enrollment declines reflect long-term demographic shifts, not primarily charter-school losses.

Rick Brammer, who led the district presentation, said the firm analyzed 25 years of the district’s 40th-day head‑count enrollment and demographic data and ran both top‑down economic models and neighborhood‑level, quarter‑section “grid” analyses. “The characteristics of the existing population and the aging of that population is really what’s the story behind … what’s happening to enrollment these days,” Brammer said.

Applied Economics’ analysis showed Chandler Unified continued to grow through 2019–20, then peaked at the COVID year and has declined since. Brammer said three main factors explain most of the falloff: the aging of householders and a smaller proportion of under‑18 residents; historically low birth rates in Arizona following the 2008 recession; and the growth…

Consultants tell Chandler Unified board enrollment decline driven by aging population, ESA program and long-term birth-rate trends

Summary

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