AECOM analysis shows livable‑wage paths raise earnings in Broomfield but carry trade‑offs; council weighs outreach and timing

Consultants from AECOM on Monday presented a three‑scenario analysis of local minimum‑wage and livable‑wage options for Broomfield, showing sizable gains in earnings for many workers under a $25 self‑sufficiency target by 2030, while also estimating limited overall employment effects that would vary by sector.

Chris Brewer, AECOM principal, and Christina Biedney, AECOM economist, briefed council on results that the firm said are intended to be illustrative rather than prescriptive. The city’s presentation framed the study as a response to council direction given at a 2024 focus session to explore livable‑wage options distinct from state or broader regional efforts.

Key findings

- Worker impacts: Under the study’s baseline (status quo) scenario — Broomfield following Colorado’s statutory minimum with inflation adjustments — fewer than 200 workers would be directly or potentially affected by minimum‑wage changes by 2030. Under a “moderate growth” schedule the analysis estimates roughly 5,000 directly or potentially affected workers. Under a self‑sufficiency or livable‑wage scenario that targets about $25 per hour by 2030, more than 10,000 workers would be directly or potentially affected.

- Sector concentration: Accommodation and food services (restaurants, hotels) and retail would show the highest concentration of affected workers; health care, manufacturing and administrative support also appear in the list of sectors with a substantial share of workers at or near the proposed thresholds.

- Employment effects: Using conservative modeling, the consultants estimated limited net employment changes in most scenarios. Over the five‑year modeling window the analysis showed a worst‑case scenario on the order of about 1,300 job changes (losses in aggregate across years) for the higher target; the consultants emphasized that recent academic literature finds small employment effects in many cases and that local market conditions matter.

- Wage gains: By 2030 the self‑sufficiency scenario would raise wages for affected workers roughly 46 percent above the status‑quo $17/hour estimate used in the model — translating for a single adult from roughly $36,000 to about $52,000 in annual wages at the scenario endpoints. The consultants noted the self‑sufficiency figure was for a single adult household and that family needs would be higher.

Methodology and caveats

AECOM said the analysis models three paths (status quo, moderate growth, self sufficiency), assumes a start year for local changes in 2026 in illustrative scenarios, and applies a modest inflation assumption for longer‑term indexing. The consultants cautioned that local outcomes depend on firm mix (national chains versus mom‑and‑pop), tipping rules for food service, commuting patterns (most low‑wage workers who work in Broomfield live outside the city), and other regional policy changes.

Council reaction and next steps

Council members debated timing, regional coordination and staffing resources needed for outreach and possible enforcement. Several members supported moving forward with a deeper outreach program and additional analysis — including targeted business engagement and studying regional approaches — while others urged caution, citing the cost and staff time needed to implement and enforce a local minimum or livable wage and the desire to see what Adams County and neighboring jurisdictions decide.

City staff told council they had not budgeted for the outreach and enforcement work associated with implementing a local minimum/livable wage and that enforcement mechanisms (audits, payroll/timekeeping review, contractor monitoring) can be time‑consuming and costly. One councilor said an earliest realistic policy implementation date, if the council chose to adopt a local minimum, could be January 1, 2027, to allow time for outreach, ordinance drafting and operational planning.

What council asked staff to do

Staff requested direction about whether to proceed with additional engagement and further detailed analyses of implementation and enforcement costs. No formal policy action was taken. Several council members asked staff to consult the chamber of commerce and local businesses and to coordinate with nearby jurisdictions and studies already underway (Adams County, Boulder area). Staff said it would provide follow‑up materials on regional studies and additional cost estimates if council requests them.