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Housing study: Payson needs roughly 392 new homes over five years, study finds
Summary
A December 2024 housing-demand study presented Jan. 22 projects the Town of Payson will need approximately 392 new housing units through 2029 to meet household demand, roughly 285 for purchase and 107 for rent, with growing demand at middle and higher price points.
A housing-demand study completed for the Town of Payson projects roughly 392 new housing units will be needed over the next five years to meet demand under current demographic and economic projections, a consultant told the town council on Jan. 22.
Chad (Next Move Group), the consultant who led the analysis, told the council the study breaks need into price and income bands. "Altogether, you need roughly 392 homes by 2029: about 285 for sale and 107 for rent," Chad said. The analysis estimates strong demand among middle- and upper-income households and a decline in households below $75,000 median income over the projection window.
The study used ESRI demographic projections and current market listings to estimate household income and housing preferences. Chad said Payson's projected household income growth (median household income rising from roughly $59,000 to $68,000 in the projection) produces demand for a wider mix of housing than commonly assumed.
Highlights the consultant described: - Demand by price band: entry-level and middle-priced ownership product is in short supply; the town has many listings at higher price points but fewer in the $250,000—12,000 range. - Over the five-year period, the study estimates about 46 owner-occupied units needed in the $250,000—325,000 range and larger numbers in middle tiers (exact numbers appear in the study). - The town has several development proposals in various stages that, if all built, would add roughly 1,000 units; not all those projects are expected to proceed to completion.
Julie (town staff) said the report also fills a recurring need among developers and low-income-tax-credit applicants for up-to-date local housing data. She said the town previously relied on a 2009 study and that up-to-date analysis helped a recent Arizona Department of Housing award for a project called Green Valley Apartments 2.
Councilors and staff discussed using the study to guide wastewater and utility planning, to provide market data to prospective developers and to inform updates to zoning and permitting. Chad said the study is intentionally low-cost and can be refreshed annually to account for rapid changes in interest rates and market conditions.
The housing study will be distributed to the council and posted with the agenda materials; councilors asked staff to follow up with a crosswalk showing which active development proposals align to the study's price bands.
