Forecasts back 10-gate Concourse A; planners say Boise will need about 23 gates by 2044

BOISE, Idaho — At the Boise Airport Commission’s Feb. 5 meeting, airport staff and consulting teams presented a 20-year commercial passenger forecast and a program of terminal projects that support building a 10-gate Concourse A and renovating existing concourses.

Alex, an airport staff presenter speaking on behalf of Airport Director Rebecca Hupp, reported the airport handled 4,990,885 total passengers in 2024, a roughly 5% increase over 2023. “We almost crest the 5,000,000 passenger mark. We were at 4,990,885 passengers,” Alex said. The airport’s enplanements and passenger loads have risen month over month, and staff said enplanements were up in December 2024 compared with December 2023.

Brian Poe, a forecasting consultant working with Ventris Architects’ team, told commissioners the consulting team’s base forecast projects about 4.7 million enplanements in 2044 under a mixed, econometric approach. “All our forecasts are really predictions. They’re — they’re our best guesses with the best information at hand,” Poe said. The consultants presented an alternative range of about 3.8 million to 5.3 million enplanements depending on optimistic and pessimistic scenarios and projected commercial operations of roughly 77,000 to 98,000 annually in the range cases; the base-case operations figure was about 97,000 by 2044.

Nut graf: The forecast and related design-day/peak-hour analysis are being used to size gate and facility recommendations for the ongoing Concourse Development and Terminal Improvements program. Consultants said the airport will need a minimum of about 23 gates in the long term if the market follows the base forecast, and they recommended moving forward with a 10-gate Concourse A now to preserve the ability to renovate Concourse B and C later.

Key details and near-term steps

- Master plan consultant selection: Staff said the city selected InterVistas to lead the airport master plan; contract terms were being finalized and expected to go to City Council and the mayor in mid-March.

- Construction manager procurement: The airport released a request for qualifications for the construction-manager/general-contractor (CMGC) phase for the concourse work; staff said the RFQ was released the prior Friday at 5:00 a.m. and responses are expected in mid-March, leading to a shortlist and on-site interviews.

- Grant funding: The airport confirmed it has a Bipartisan Infrastructure Law (BIL) grant of $9,000,000 for passenger boarding bridges; staff said the owner’s representative and consultants are preparing documentation to support the Federal Aviation Administration grant closeout.

- Sizing and operations: Consultants’ derivative (peak-period) forecasts showed design-day passenger counts rising to nearly 15,000 and peak-hour passenger volumes approaching about 3,000 by 2044, requiring roughly 25–30 peak-hour operations and approximately 3,500 peak-hour seats to maintain an optimum level of service.

Why the 10-gate Concourse A now

Consultants and staff said building Concourse A with 10 gates now provides the gate capacity and operational flexibility needed so the airport can renovate Concourse B and C while maintaining service. The forecast indicates current concourse geometry and gate frontage support far fewer effective narrow-body gates than physical positions imply; consultants said about 13 functional gates exist today when sizing for contemporary narrow-body aircraft and passenger service levels. Adding Concourse A is intended to raise that capacity to the level the forecast anticipates by 2044.

Commissioners and staff discussion highlights

Commissioners congratulated airport staff on recent route launches and passenger growth and asked several operational questions about peer-group selection, master-plan scope and whether the forecast addresses cargo, general aviation and military needs. Beth Sumner, deputy director of engineering and planning, said the commercial forecast will feed into the broader master plan, which will include cargo, GA and military forecasts.

Votes at a glance (meeting actions related to this agenda)

- Approval of minutes for Dec. 4, 2024: Motion carried by voice vote (no roll-call tally recorded in the meeting minutes). Outcome: approved. Notes: moved and seconded; chair called “motion carries.”

- Motion to adjourn: Carried by voice vote. Outcome: approved.

What remains to be decided

Staff said the airport will continue design programming and a gap analysis to define hold-room, restroom and concession needs; the owner’s representative (Jacobs) and design team will move to the next procurement stages for the CMGC. The airport emphasized that the master plan and the terminal program are iterative: forecasts will be validated with subsequent data and FAA review as part of funding and planning work.

Ending: Staff asked commissioners and community members to expect more briefings as the RFQ and master-plan procurement progress; consultants and staff said they will return with updated studies and schedule milestones as the work advances.