County polling shows tentative support for public safety levy; library steering committee to test two rates

Washington County commissioners received results on Jan. 14 from EMC Research showing qualified voter support for a proposed public safety levy replacement and updates on library-levy planning.

EMC Research senior principal Ian Stewart told the board the December 2024 countywide survey of 400 likely November 2025 voters has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points. “Anything you’re looking at is … accurate within that plus or minus 4.9 percentage points,” Stewart said during the presentation.

The county team presented results in stages. When asked a generic “renewal” question with no cost or ballot language attached, 72% of respondents said they were very or somewhat likely to support replacing the expiring levy. When shown draft ballot language and a first-year average homeowner cost, initial support fell to about 57%. After the survey provided the cost as a renewal (described in the poll as an approximate $69 increase in year one, or roughly $5.75 per month for the typical homeowner) and more information about specific program components, support rose to the mid-60s to low-70s depending on the wording and whether respondents then heard negative messaging about taxes and inflation.

Stewart summarized the pattern: voters are broadly favorable in principle, but support drops when a specific ballot title and cost are introduced, then rebounds when the measure is described as a renewal and when program components are shown. He told the board that the “right direction, wrong track” item — a standard measure of voter sentiment — correlated strongly with levy support: respondents who said the county was headed in the right direction showed much higher net support for the levy than those who said things were on the wrong track.

County staff presented findings on priorities and program components. Homelessness, property crime/theft and unsafe driving ranked among the top public-safety concerns in open-ended questions. When surveyed about priorities that could appear in a levy, “reducing child abuse” produced the highest intensity of support: 66% of respondents rated it an “extremely high priority.” Other components that polled strongly were domestic-violence response and prosecution of property crimes, along with expanded behavioral-health and addiction-court capacity.

Assistant county administrators Erin Calvert and Marnie Kyle told the board the steering committee advised testing the library levy at two different rates. The library steering committee has scheduled polling for the week of Jan. 27; staff said they plan to split the sample to test both a 10¢ and a 15¢ per $1,000 assessed-value rate so the county can compare likely voter reactions without reducing statistical confidence.

Ian Stewart recommended additional polling closer to the election, and told commissioners that historically Washington County measures often perform at or slightly better at the ballot box than in pre-election polling. He also warned that economic conditions and overall voter sentiment (the right-direction/wrong-track measure) are important risk factors for a tax measure.

Board members asked how subgroups reacted to the measure. Stewart showed a pronounced age split: voters age 60 and older were markedly more supportive; younger and renter cohorts showed weaker support in the initial ballot-language test. Commissioners also discussed geographic splits across county commissioner districts and the survey’s sample-size limits for district-level conclusions.

County staff said the public-safety steering committee will meet again in February and that staff will bring more refined investment scenarios and additional polling later in the process. The board did not take a vote; staff asked whether commissioners wanted more direction before the next round of levy development work and polling.