Nicole Sankula Baska, chief executive officer of the Bay Area Water Supply and Conservation Agency (BAWSCA), presented to the San Francisco Public Utilities Commission on Nov. 26 about wholesale customer planning, demand projections and how those dynamics affect regional water reliability.

BAWSCA represents 26 wholesale water suppliers that receive SFPUC regional water; the agencies collectively serve about 1,800,000 people, Baska said. She explained the historical reliance on the regional system and showed a supply‑portfolio graphic that, according to her presentation, illustrated a 1986 baseline, a post‑drought current picture and a future projection in which wholesale customers are diversifying supply with more recycled water, groundwater conjunctive use and conservation.

Baska told the commission that BAWSCA is coordinating a demand study using econometric models for each member agency that will project demands to 2045 and explicitly examine “drought recovery” behavior — how usage rebounds after droughts — as a key uncertainty in planning. She said the demand study, begun in March, considers variables including population, employment, water rates, conservation activity and temperature, and that it would produce a range of projections to inform planning and urban water management plans; BAWSCA expects the study to be complete by June of next fiscal year.

BAWSCA emphasized the continuing importance of the SFPUC supply-assurance right of 184,000,000 gallons per day; Baska traced the assurance to litigation dating back to a 1977 settlement in Palo Alto v. San Francisco and said it remains “a critical component” of member agencies’ planning. Commissioners and BAWSCA staff discussed whether current actual usage creates a growing gap between the 184 MGD assurance and projected demand; BAWSCA noted that the assurance is a perpetual right and that most planning activity focuses on dry‑year reliability rather than normal‑year supply.

Why it matters: BAWSCA’s demand projections and the legal guarantee of 184 MGD shape how wholesale customers and the PUC plan investments in diversification, conservation and dry‑year projects. The demand‑study results will affect whether wholesale customers pursue local recycling, groundwater projects, or other investments and will inform SFPUC’s discussions with the Planning Department about future development and water‑supply assessments.

BAWSCA said it is coordinating closely with PUC staff and that the demand study’s range-based outputs will be used for urban water management planning and to advise both agency and city decisions.