Policy forum: Milwaukee arrests and traffic stops plunged; committee hears multiple possible causes

The Wisconsin Policy Forum presented data to the Milwaukee Common Council Public Safety and Health Committee on Jan. 30 showing a sustained drop in Milwaukee Police Department arrests and traffic stops over the 2012–2023 period, and committee members and department representatives discussed possible causes and policy responses.

The Forum’s presentation summarized its key findings: arrests fell from about 51,000 in 2012 to just over 9,000 in 2023 (a drop of roughly 82.3%), and traffic stops declined from roughly 150,000 in 2015 to about 27,715 in 2023 (about an 81.5% decrease). The Forum also reported a 95.7% fall in “summons and citation” arrests and noted declines across both on‑view and taken‑into‑custody arrest categories. The committee voted to place the report on file.

The Forum’s case for a multicausal explanation Rob Henkin, immediate past president of the Wisconsin Policy Forum, and Ari Brown, senior research associate, told the committee they studied 10 years of data and compared Milwaukee with a set of peer cities that report incident‑based data. Brown said Milwaukee’s decline was the largest among those peers. Henkin and Brown urged caution about single‑cause explanations and said multiple factors likely contributed, including declines in reported offenses, department staffing drops, changes in practice required by the 2018 Collins settlement, leadership turnover and an increase in high‑priority calls that reduced officers’ time for proactive policing.

"We feel even more confident ... that it's really a confluence of several factors," Henkin said during his presentation.

MPD and FPC responses Heather Huff, chief of staff for the Milwaukee Police Department, said the department welcomed the data but cautioned the committee against treating arrest counts alone as the measure of public safety. "If you define [success] by arrest, this is alarming," Huff said, adding that policing practices nationwide have changed and that some responses that formerly resulted in arrests now use non‑arrest alternatives such as outreach or social‑service referrals. She and Assistant Chief Craig Sarnow told the committee that compliance obligations tied to the Collins settlement — notably detailed reporting and training requirements — take officer time and can reduce time for proactive field activity.

Leon Todd, executive director of the Milwaukee Fire and Police Commission, and MPD staff also described workforce pressures. Committee members and Forum presenters discussed staffing, noting the Forum’s finding that active sworn strength had declined in recent years and that MPD priority‑1 emergency calls had risen while proactive policing metrics had fallen.

Committee discussion and follow‑up Committee members pressed for clarifying data and for follow‑up work. Alderman Peter Bergellis asked whether the collapse in lower‑level arrests should have produced improved resident satisfaction; Forum researchers noted satisfaction around traffic enforcement remained lower than a decade ago. Several alderpersons requested further breakdowns (for example, by district or by officer unassigned/proactive time) and a way to track how supervisors handle discretionary charging decisions the new SOPs require MPD officers to document.

The committee placed the Policy Forum report on file. Alderman Bergellis moved placement on file; the chair announced there were no objections and the item was ordered placed on file.

Why this matters Forum presenters and committee members emphasized that the data raise policy questions for Milwaukee: whether changes in policing practices and workloads are producing unintended consequences for traffic safety, whether the Collins settlement should be revisited for targeted clarification, how staffing and workload affect the ability to do proactive enforcement, and which non‑police interventions (mental‑health response, social services, EMS strategies) could free officer time for other priorities.

The Forum recommended further study of how officers spend time, whether priority‑1 call volumes could be reduced through alternative responses and whether targeted policy tweaks could improve traffic enforcement without undermining constitutional policing.

Next steps Committee members asked MPD and the Forum for follow‑up materials, including: district‑level stop and arrest trends, a breakdown of officer unassigned/proactive time, overtime trends, and more detail on how often supervisory exceptions are authorized when officers deviate from new citation procedures. The Forum’s presenters said some qualitative questions remain and recommended further, focused data collection and review.