The San Francisco Department of Disability and Aging Services told its commission on Jan. 8 that a projected city deficit and rising program costs will put pressure on services and staffing across the department.

DAS Executive Director Kelly Dearman and HSA Deputy Director for Administration Dan Kaplan presented the department’s baseline figures, noting that DAS’s current budget is about $510,000,000 and that "IHSS represents about 75% of the DAS budget," Kaplan said. They warned that a mayoral budget directive requires departments to propose a 15% reduction to discretionary general-fund spending; HSA’s share of that target is $8,200,000.

The presentation laid out why DAS faces pressure. IHSS (In‑Home Supportive Services) accounts for most aid payments and independent‑provider wage support; Kaplan said the local share carried in DAS is roughly one‑third of the total IHSS spending delivered in San Francisco and that the overall IHSS program serving the city is near $1 billion annually when state and federal wage funding are included. Under state law the IHSS maintenance‑of‑effort (MOE) grows 4% annually; Kaplan said MOE growth plus assimilating wage increases from the four‑year SEIU 2015 agreement are factored into the department’s projections for FY25–26 and FY26–27.

Dearman and Kaplan also reviewed caseload growth that will increase operating demands: Adult Protective Services reports have increased about 27% over three years after a change in presumptive eligibility age, IHSS caseloads rose more than 4% year‑over‑year to serve over 30,000 individuals, and DAS’s integrated intake completed roughly 16,000 program intakes (a 6% increase). Dearman noted that Office of Community Partnerships enrollments rose to more than 53,000 unduplicated clients in the most recent year.

On local revenue risks, Kaplan said the Dignity Fund — a locally dedicated fund that grows by $3 million per year unless a deficit trigger is pulled — may not grow next year. He reported an internal forecast that set the deficit trigger threshold at $249 million and the city’s projected deficit at $253 million, “so there is substantial risk that the trigger will be pulled and there won’t be dignity fund growth this year,” he said.

The presenters walked commissioners through the biennial calendar: DAS will return Feb. 5 with formal budget recommendations, submit to the mayor’s office Feb. 21, and then participate in the mayor‑to‑board process culminating in a mayoral budget on June 1. Dearman and Kaplan emphasized that the mayor’s office and the department will continue to refine revenue projections and that any federal budget changes will take months to cascade to state and local budgets.

Commissioners asked about timing and practical effects. Kaplan said much of the first‑year gap in the city projection stems from slower‑than‑expected revenue growth, while second‑year pressure is driven largely by salary and benefit growth from recently negotiated labor agreements. Dearman confirmed staffing shortages in hard‑to‑recruit areas (for example, the Office of the Public Conservator) and said DAS is seeking to fill positions while balancing budget constraints.

The presentation included program‑level specifics — for example, that roughly $95 million of a $107 million programmatic line supports community‑based organization (CBO) contracts — and described funding sources (about 23% federal, 35% state, 42% local). Kaplan and Dearman advised commissioners that the current work will focus on identifying reductions and possible new revenues before proposing final cuts or program changes.

Looking ahead, Dearman said DAS will prioritize maintaining client services while attempting to use one‑time savings strategically; Kaplan noted that one‑time savings can temporarily fill gaps but cannot substitute for ongoing funding. The department recommended monitoring state and federal developments and returning with detailed proposals at the February meeting.