Oxnard — City staff and consultants on Oct. 28 presented an update on the effort to revise Oxnard’s certified Local Coastal Program to plan for sea-level rise, showing maps of erosion, tidal and storm flooding under multiple scenarios and outlining a suite of adaptation options ranging from beach nourishment and dunes to hard-armoring and drainage improvements.

Jeff Van Ghely, the city’s community development director, and Kathleen Mallory, planning and sustainability manager, introduced Carolyn Groves of Dudek, the coastal-planning consultant, who led the presentation. Groves said the update is roughly 40–50% through a three-year effort to update Oxnard’s LCP, which was certified in the 1980s and covers roughly 15% of the city’s land area. The presentation used the USGS COSMOS model and Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change scenarios to evaluate multiple future sea-level-rise benchmarks (including roughly 1.6, 3.3, 4.9 and 6.6 feet) and show when different levels might occur under intermediate and high emissions pathways.

The vulnerability assessment was organized to match Oxnard’s four LCP planning areas: Planning Area 1 (McGrath/Mandalay Beach and the Santa Clara River mouth), Planning Area 2 (Oxnard Shores, Channel Islands and the upper Channel Islands Harbor under city jurisdiction), Planning Area 3 (lower harbor/Hollywood Beach area, largely under county jurisdiction), and Planning Area 4 (Ormond Beach and the area around the wastewater treatment plant and industrial sites). The maps and discussion identified these recurring risks:

- Erosion: Significant shoreline retreat is shown in multiple planning areas under higher sea-level scenarios and in the absence of additional nourishment; some shorelines would move landward toward the first line of houses in Oxnard Shores at higher scenarios.

- Tidal and storm flooding: "Mean high water" (nuisance/tidal) flooding and 100‑year storm flooding were modeled; the maps show combined sources (ocean overtopping, riverine flooding from the Santa Clara River, and interior flooding via channels and drainage) that converge in low-lying areas such as Harbor Boulevard and portions of the upper harbor.

- Wave run-up and instantaneous inundation: Consultants flagged locations subject to individual wave run-up and the difference between short-duration inundation from waves and longer-duration flood extents that may persist until drainage occurs.

Groves emphasized uncertainty in exact timing and called for planning under multiple scenarios because sea-level rise depends on future global greenhouse-gas emissions. She said the team modeled five sea-level benchmarks and that the Coastal Commission recommends using best-available science and adaptive management. Patrick Miskill, Dudek’s coastal engineer, noted that the maps show flood extents but do not include detailed drainage-duration estimates, which depend on local stormwater infrastructure and topography.

Adaptation options presented include five categories: hard engineering (seawalls, elevating structures), nature-based measures (dune restoration, beach nourishment), hybrid or "bridal" approaches combining hard and nature-based methods, operational measures (temporary flood barriers, emergency response), and planning and policy measures that would be implemented through LCP land-use policies and the zoning-based Local Implementation Plan. Consultants presented planning-area-specific ideas such as working with state parks and the county to preserve McGrath State Beach and the Santa Clara River mouth, strengthening Channel Islands Harbor protections, using parks and parking areas as flood buffer zones, elevating or armoring critical infrastructure (including the wastewater treatment plant) and coordinating sediment management with the Army Corps and regional partners.

Groves said the presentation is informational; no policy changes were adopted at the committee. Staff said a fiscal-impact analysis — including the cost of doing nothing and the costs/benefits of adaptation options — will be presented to a committee or the City Council in 2026. The consultants and staff also said they will resume community outreach with additional public meetings and multilingual outreach required by state law (SB 272) and noted coordination with Ventura County, the Harbor Department and state and federal agencies (including the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency and the California Department of Toxic Substances Control) on overlapping hazards and projects.

Why it matters: The LCP update will guide coastal development, permit decisions and long-term capital planning in Oxnard's coastal zone. The maps show hazards to public infrastructure and private properties under a range of sea-level scenarios and identify adaptation options that will have fiscal and equity implications for the city.

Next steps: Staff and Dudek will present a financial impact analysis and a refined set of policy proposals in 2026, continue community outreach (staff reported roughly 38 attendees at one prior community meeting), and coordinate with the Coastal Commission ahead of any formal LCP amendments that will require public hearings and certification by the Coastal Commission.