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Modeling shows point‑of‑sale weight surcharge could cut heavy‑SUV market share but would raise billions; annual fees have smaller effects
Summary
UC Irvine’s DynaSim modeling indicates a large onetime purchase surcharge tied to pounds above the 2024 mean (3,800 lb) produces the biggest fleet‑weight change in the simulations and yields billions in revenue; annual per‑pound registration surcharges have much smaller modeled effects.
Dr. David Brownstone of the University of California, Irvine, presented modelled consumer responses to weight‑based fees using the DynaSim forecasting framework maintained by the California Energy Commission. Brownstone grouped light‑duty vehicles into 27 vehicle classes by size and fuel type and ran counterfactual simulations comparing a baseline (no new fee) to two stylized fee designs.
Key modeled scenarios and results
1) Onetime purchase surcharge (point of sale): Brownstone simulated a linear surcharge of $5 per pound on the portion of a vehicle’s weight exceeding 3,800 pounds (the approximate 2024 mean weight). Under that design the model projects, by 2040, a 2.5% decline in the 90th‑percentile vehicle weight, a 1.2% decline in the mean fleet weight, a 17% decline in the number of “large SUVs,” and a 10.5% decline in heavy and standard pickup trucks. The scenario produced an estimated…
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