Fairfax City officials on Nov. 4 received a presentation of the city's first Affordable Housing Strategic Plan, which sets out demand forecasts, identifies barriers to adding and preserving affordable units, and offers a set of strategies for development, preservation and supportive services.

TPMA, the consultant team that helped craft the plan, told the council the analysis combines a 2023 housing assessment with new engagement and demand modeling. The plan estimates five‑year demand of roughly 1,024 for‑sale units and 1,252 rental units; a 10‑year demand model projects about 2,062 for‑sale and 2,528 rental units.

The plan places affordability in income terms: the consultants explained Area Median Income (AMI) metrics and noted the city uses the standard test that housing is considered affordable when a household pays no more than 30% of its income for housing costs. TPMA said 80% AMI for a family of four in Fairfax City is roughly $106,800 and highlighted a discrepancy between local census and HUD calculations noted in the report.

Consultants described survey and outreach results from 678 public responses and multiple focus groups. They reported rentership respondents were disproportionately cost‑burdened: nearly half of renter respondents said they faced affordability challenges in the prior 12 months, versus about 13% of homeowners. TPMA said roughly 44% of renter households are cost‑burdened compared with about 20% of homeowners, and that nearly half of renter survey respondents expect they will need to leave the city within three years because of housing costs.

The plan also frames workforce affordability: TPMA estimated that many essential occupations and common local jobs would need to earn at least $52,000 annually to afford a typical one‑bedroom unit in the city at a 30% of income threshold, a constraint the consultants said risks workforce out‑migration and longer commutes.

To respond, the strategic plan groups actions into three goals: (1) increase affordable housing development through zoning, adaptive reuse and incentives; (2) preserve naturally occurring affordable housing (NOAH) using monitoring, targeted grants/loans, tax incentives and first‑right‑of‑refusal mechanisms; and (3) strengthen community services and tenant protections to prevent displacement and improve housing stability. The report recommends establishing a standing housing trust fund and identifying permanent local funding sources (examples in the report include nominal property taxes, recording or transfer fees, permitting fees or a mix of sources) to sustain both production and preservation efforts.

Councilmembers asked questions about preserving specific NOAH properties, the plan's alignment with state and county initiatives, and partnerships with nonprofit providers. TPMA stressed that the plan is intended as an implementation roadmap: the Housing and Healthy Communities Advisory Board will present in December, and staff expect to return with funding and program recommendations tied to specific actions.

The report and presentation identified local pilot examples of layered financing, citing Beacon Landing (permanent supportive housing) and other local projects that combined federal, county and city support. TPMA emphasized the report's repeated point that one‑time funds can help start projects but that durable, codified revenue for a housing trust fund is necessary for sustainable preservation and development.

Councilmember responses were broadly supportive of the plan as a starting point. Councilmembers pressed for more detail on implementation, including how the city might prioritize existing residents for new affordable units and how supportive services would be funded and delivered alongside housing stock. TPMA emphasized prevention‑focused services (rent relief, eviction prevention and wraparound services) as cost‑effective ways to keep people housed and avoid the higher social and fiscal costs of homelessness.

Next steps: the Housing and Healthy Communities Advisory Board will present additional detail in December and staff said they will return with an implementation plan and suggested partners. The strategic plan document and an interactive survey dashboard are available as an addendum to the report.

Sources: presentation and Q&A at the Nov. 4 Fairfax City work session; Affordable Housing Strategic Plan (TPMA) presentation excerpts.