Climate vulnerability assessment finds higher flood risk at Santa Barbara Airport; runway closures could become more frequent

A consultant-led climate vulnerability assessment (part of a three‑phase adaptation plan) presented modeling showing that increased precipitation from climate change, combined with sea-level rise, will raise the likelihood of flooding events at Santa Barbara Airport and increase both frequency and economic impacts of runway and apron flooding.

Key findings presented by ESA: - Sea-level scenarios (2024 OPC guidance, intermediate-high risk): near-term ~0.8 ft (around 2048), mid-term ~2.5 ft (circa 2076) and long-term ~6.6 ft (circa 2130). - Precipitation changes: events that historically occurred once every 5 years (5.5 inches in 24 hours) are modeled to occur roughly every 2.5 years in the future; events that historically closed the airport (previously ~1-in-20/1-in-50 year thresholds) are projected to occur much more often under future precipitation scenarios. - Flood drivers: analysis showed airport flooding today is dominated by creek and runoff flooding rather than direct tidal inundation; increased precipitation substantially raises near-term flood risk. Sea-level rise above ~2.5 ft begins to materially increase regular runway flooding; with ~6.6 ft of rise runway flooding would become routine. - Asset vulnerability: highest vulnerabilities were identified in northwest GA aprons, runways (all runways), glide slope antenna and remote transmitter/receiver infrastructure, the airport tower, and sanitary/stormwater infrastructure. - Economic analysis: consultant estimates cumulative economic losses (across scenarios through mid-century/mid-century horizons) could be significant; staff cautioned that GA operators are also affected and that additional study detail is in the consultant report. Airport revenue losses were estimated at roughly $120,000 per day of shutdown in 2024 dollars (staff noted the socioeconomic firm SEDo produced estimates in the report).

Consultant recommended next steps: evaluate a suite of adaptation options (protect, accommodate, retreat, and hybrid solutions), emphasize nature-based and lower-cost options where feasible, and continue community engagement. Staff plans further public outreach and will integrate the adaptation plan into the local coastal plan (LCP) update and broader airport planning processes.

Public comment from a GA operator urged the study to better quantify direct operational and financial impacts on general aviation operators, noting cancellations of lessons and flights during past floodings.