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National Weather Service warns of high winds; winter outlook shows weak La Niña leaning neutral
Summary
Tim Bardsley of the National Weather Service Reno office briefed the board on a near‑term high‑wind event and the seasonal winter outlook. Northern Nevada is largely drought‑free, but forecasts show significant variability and only a slight tilt toward weaker La Niña or neutral conditions this winter.
Tim Bardsley, senior service hydrologist at the National Weather Service (NWS) Reno office, briefed the Truckee Meadows Fire & Rescue Board on Nov. 4 about an imminent high‑wind event and the seasonal winter outlook.
Bardsley told the board that NWS had issued a high wind warning beginning at 1 a.m. the next day for the Reno–Carson–Tahoe corridor and high‑wind advisories elsewhere. “We have a lot of wind coming through, ramping up tonight into tomorrow morning,” he said, and warned of damaging gusts of 60 mph or more in wind‑prone locations, with higher gusts along the crest.
On drought and water‑year conditions, Bardsley said Northern Nevada is largely drought‑free following a strong start to the water year (Oct. 1). He summarized the ENSO (El Niño–Southern Oscillation) outlook as a most‑likely progression from a weak La Niña into neutral conditions later in the season, with roughly a 55% chance of weak La Niña for Dec–Feb shifting toward neutral afterward. He cautioned that seasonal forecasts for this region have limited predictability and substantial historical variability: "there's a wide amount of variability—we could have wet years and dry years in all three cases," he said.
Bardsley explained the operational lead times the NWS uses: 7–14 days for broad pattern signals, 2–5 days for specifics likely to change, and sub‑48‑hour windows for localized transitions (e.g., rain to snow). He described the "ready, set, go" framework for communications—briefings, watches and warnings—and pointed commissioners to NWS and partner resources (NWS IDSS pages, California Nevada River Forecast Center, SNOTEL graphics) for deterministic and probabilistic hydrologic forecasts.
Ending: Bardsley urged local agencies to monitor briefings and forecasts given the expected near‑term winds and seasonal uncertainty; the board thanked him and noted they would follow NWS alerts.
