Scottsdale Unified projects smaller M&O budget next year as enrollment drop, Prop 123 uncertainty bite

Scottsdale Unified School District finance staff told the governing board on the district’s January special meeting that early maintenance-and-operations (M&O) projections for 2025–26 show a smaller budget driven by declining enrollment and lingering uncertainty over state funding.

At a high-level presentation, district staff said the preliminary estimate assumes a weighted student count reduction of about 499. That decline, combined with a lower carryforward into next year and an unknown outcome for Prop 123 funding, produces an initial gap staff described as “somewhere between a 2.8 and a 4.2 [million]” shortfall depending on whether the Prop 1–3 dollars continue at prior levels. The presenter emphasized the numbers are early and that final ADM and weight calculations will follow after the district’s 100th-day reporting and state adjustments.

The projection reflects three drivers the district identified: (1) a projected ADM reduction, (2) carryforward balances that are lower than expected this year, and (3) continued pressure from inflation on…