Land of Sky study tells Buncombe County committee region needs roughly 34,000 homes by 2029

Jacob, a Land of Sky Regional Council representative, presented the council—s 2025 Housing Needs Assessment to the Buncombe County advisory committee and said the region faces a large shortfall in housing. "We have over 34,000 units that are gonna be needed by 2029," he said, adding that the estimate breaks down to about 14,000 rental units and a little over 20,000 for-sale units.

The study, an update to reports from 2015 and 2020, uses U.S. Census and American Community Survey data, Esri modeling and feedback from stakeholders across the Land of Sky region. Jacob said the region—s population is roughly half a million and expected to grow, while median household income for the area is below the state average (the presenter described median household income figures in the mid-to-high $60,000 range). He told the committee the housing market is being driven by three interlinked pressures: a shortage of units, rising costs, and affordability limits that particularly affect special-needs cohorts such as older adults.

The assessment finds an acute rental shortage and cost pressures: the presenter said vacancy rates measured in earlier work were about 3— 4 percent (a healthy market is typically around 7 percent), while a recent local news account cited a 10 percent vacancy rate that Jacob said reflects a glut of higher-end apartments rather than broad availability at affordable price points. He stated that government-subsidized units are near capacity and that about half of renters in the region are cost burdened (paying more than 30 percent of income for housing), with 10— 20 percent of renters severely cost burdened (about 50 percent of income going to housing). The presenter gave median two-bedroom rents around $1,800 and that regional median sale prices rose from roughly $365,000 in 2021 to about $453,000 in 2024.

The study also flags population-specific needs: Jacob told the committee roughly 7,700 senior-care beds or units will be required by 2029 to meet demand from households age 65 and older. He said manufactured and park-model housing are part of the solution set, noting that many manufactured homes were displaced by recent storms and that the study did not fully differentiate manufactured units in its data.

Stakeholder input (48 respondents across the region, including nonprofits, financial institutions and local government staff) rated top barriers as land cost and limited buildable land. Respondents prioritized down-payment assistance and home-repair programs, renter security deposit assistance and legal aid; the presentation said the consensus view from stakeholders was to preserve existing affordable stock and add new supply.

On strategies, Jacob recommended a set of incremental, local-scale approaches rather than relying solely on large developers: easing rules for accessory dwelling units, enabling duplexes/triplexes and similar "missing middle" housing, relaxing overly stringent fire standards that make small multifamily development costly, and supporting prefabricated and manufactured-home solutions (including smaller, rapidly deployable modular homes). He also cited examples in Durham and Hendersonville where zoning and permitting changes helped expand housing choices.

Committee members asked questions about the drivers of the projected need (in-migration versus existing stock loss), the role of manufactured housing, and site selection and zoning constraints near commercial corridors. Jacob said much of the need reflected a long-term gap that predated recent storms, with recent weather events exacerbating displacement in manufactured-home communities. He said land suitability and existing zoning in amenity-rich corridors often constrain smaller, infill options.

Jacob pointed committee members to the full slide deck and the Housing Needs Assessment available through Asheville-area channels for detailed maps and tables. "If you guys got the slides, feel free to check out the housing needs assessment there," he said, and offered to follow up on specific questions.

The presentation concluded without formal action; the committee moved on to an AHSP guideline revision later in the agenda.