Statewide enrollment dips to near 2016 levels; districts down, charters up
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Summary
USBE school finance staff presented October 1 and ADM counts and CDC consensus projections showing a substantial drop in district enrollments and offsetting charter increases; statewide enrollment fell to roughly 643,000, similar to 2016 levels. Board members discussed implications for WPUs and the guarantee.
Statewide public school enrollment dropped considerably compared with recent years, finance staff told the Utah State Board of Education, with district enrollments declining sharply while charter enrollments increased modestly.
Dale Frost and Sam Urie of USBE—s finance office presented consensus October 1 counts and projections developed with the Legislative Fiscal Analyst and the governor—s office. The council—s consensus projection showed a net statewide decline of roughly 11,500 students between October 2024 and October 2025; district enrollments fell far more than expected while charter enrollments rose.
Frost said the decline returns statewide enrollment to levels near 2016: "If we land at the 643,000, that's essentially where we were back in October 2016," he said. Finance staff described the immediate budget impact: many programs are funded on Average Daily Membership or WPUs, and a sustained enrollment decline affects minimum school program funding, district budgets and the guarantee calculation that backs voted levies.
Board members asked for follow-up data, including part-time/online flags and whether LEAs were collecting exit information that would illuminate drivers of student movement. Staff said LEAs provide exit codes when students leave; a broader survey could be developed by the board if members directed it.
Why it matters: Enrollment is a core driver of the state—s funding formulas. Large, sustained declines can affect district budgets, levy guarantees and policy decisions about capacity and program funding.
Next steps: Finance staff will update LEA budgets to reflect October counts and continue to work with the Legislative Fiscal Analyst and the governor—s office on consensus estimates. Board members requested additional breakdowns of part-time/online counts and suggested considering exit-survey options to better understand student movement.