A transmission and market simulation coordinated by the North Dakota Transmission Authority, the Energy & Environmental Research Center (EERC) and regional transmission organizations examined whether the state’s electrical grid could integrate large new loads such as data centers and industrial plants without new generation and transmission.

Using SPP and MISO planning models for 2026, 2029 and 2034 and nodal market dispatch, the study ran three large‑load scenarios — loads concentrated in eastern, central and western North Dakota — and a price‑sensitive curtailment scenario. The primary findings reported to the committee on Oct. 29 were:

• Thermal and voltage constraints appear in each scenario where additional large loads were added; in several cases the lines nearest major generation areas (coal/wind zones) hit limits and local 115‑kV distribution corridors (for the Williston area) showed congestion under high‑load conditions.
• Location marginal prices (LMPs) rose sharply in some locations in the large‑load cases. The EERC team showed examples where LMPs exceeded $250/MWh at a single node in an unconstrained case; a partial curtailment scenario reduced prices but required curtailment of part of the large loads.
• Dispatch results showed increased use of thermal generation to meet large loads while exports from North Dakota decreased in the large‑load cases. The study identified a set of binding transmission constraints in SPP models that would need upgrades to relieve bottlenecks.

Daisy Salvaraj of the EERC said the results are sensitive to the exact location, pace and scale of confirmed facilities and to the resource mix in the RTO planning cases. The authors recommended the committee and utilities refine scenarios using confirmed customer locations and to explore combinations of targeted transmission upgrades, generation additions and demand‑management approaches as ways to preserve reliability and contain price impacts.

Why it matters: The study quantifies risks and trade‑offs if many very large electricity users arrive before transmission and local generation are in place. It identifies where reinforcements are most likely to be needed and shows that curtailment or other demand‑management mechanisms will reduce price spikes but would limit the energy delivered to new customers.

Provenance: EERC / ND Transmission Authority presentation to the Legislative Interim Committee, Oct. 29, 2025 (start: 03:44:02; finish: 03:56:48).