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OMB: state closed 23‑25 biennium stronger than forecast; early 26 revenues below forecast
Summary
Office of Management and Budget officials said the state ended the 2023–25 biennium with revenues $116 million above forecast and roughly $327 million of agency turnbacks, improving the starting position for 2025–27.
Office of Management and Budget analysts told the Government Finance Committee that North Dakota concluded the 2023–25 biennium with stronger-than-expected revenue and turnbacks, producing a higher starting balance for the 2025–27 biennium — but noted early revenue timing shortfalls in the first months of the new biennium.
"The revenues number of 5,638,000,000 is a 116,000,000 higher than the forecast that you adopted in the budgeting process," Joe Morissette of OMB told the committee, summarizing updated receipts and agency 'turn back' amounts. OMB reported approximately $327 million of agency turnbacks, about $40 million more than the estimate used during session.
OMB explained that some of the difference reflects timing and one‑time factors: agencies returned unspent appropriation authority, some vacancies and lower‑than‑expected operating costs reduced expenditures, and statutory transfers of earnings into the Budget Stabilization Fund (SIF) were covered by fund earnings rather than by general‑fund transfers.
Morissette and Becky Uhlberg (budget analyst) walked members through monthly cash flow methods and the office’s practice of applying the adopted legislative forecast for the months ahead while reporting observed variances. OMB reported a small shortfall (~$10 million) in the first month and a larger shortfall (~$39 million) in the second month of the biennium; staff characterized these as timing issues they will monitor.
Why it matters: the stronger-than-expected close of the prior biennium increases starting balances available for committee consideration in upcoming budget reviews, but early shortfalls underscore timing risk and the need for continued monitoring.
What’s next: OMB will provide regular monthly revenue updates, detail on the composition of agency turnbacks, and further context for biennial planning; members asked staff to integrate those updates into future committee meetings and to provide more granular carryover detail for major agencies.
