Staff: Utah K–12 enrollment fell more than expected; districts could lose about 17,000 students next year
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Summary
State Board staff told members that October 1 counts produced a larger-than-expected net decline this year and that CDC projections show a roughly 2% statewide drop next year — districts down ~17,000 students while charter enrollments rise ~3,400 — information used to update the minimum school program budget.
State education finance staff told the Utah State Board of Education that statewide K–12 enrollment fell more than anticipated this year and that the consensus projection for next year shows an approximate 2% decline overall, with district enrollments shrinking and charter enrollments increasing.
Dale Frost, minimum school program administrator, said the department’s consensus-data-committee projections initially expected districts down about 9,500 students and charters up about 1,600 (a net decline of about 1.17%). "Where did we actually end up?" Frost asked and answered: "the net change was 11,500 students," a shortfall he described as "very surprising." Frost told the board the CDC now projects next year’s statewide enrollment to be down about 2%, with districts down roughly 17,000 students and charters up about 3,400.
Why it matters: enrollment headcounts and ADM (average daily membership) feed the minimum school program, including weighted pupil units and other funding formulas. Sam Urie, school finance director, and Frost said LEA budgets will be updated to reflect the revised counts and ADM implications for funding.
Frost emphasized technical distinctions the board must consider. "Think of [ADM] as like a full time equivalent student," he said, explaining ADM differs from October 1 headcount and is the basis for many WPU‑based program calculations. He also cautioned about data limitations: there are flags for part‑time students and school‑level flags for online enrollment, but the system does not always capture a clean, student‑level online vs. in‑person breakdown.
Board members raised questions about what is driving the changes. Frost cited multiple factors — shifting online enrollment, demographic changes and program shifts such as the Utah Fits All program — and said that a portion of the district‑to‑charter shift may be attributable to online students, estimating online counts might explain about 1,000 of the difference but not all of it.
On exit information, Frost said LEAs must provide an exit code when a student leaves but that the state does not currently administer a statewide family exit survey. "The LEA has to provide an exit code," he said, and Sam Urie added that a statewide family exit survey could be created "through rule or recommended legislation" if the board directed staff to pursue it.
Frost also presented grade‑by‑grade detail showing a demographic driver of future declines: district kindergarten counts statewide are about 15,000 fewer than current senior class levels, a shortfall that shifts cohort sizes downward in coming years. He noted statewide full‑day kindergarten participation is about 92% and that teacher FTE is essentially flat year over year, with district FTE down slightly and charter FTE offsetting that decline.
The board heard offers to provide supplemental materials (such as last year’s attendance audit with parent outreach) and was told staff will use the CDC figures to update LEA budgets. No formal action or vote was taken on these items during the presentation; next steps identified were sharing backup detail with board members and returning to budget items as needed.
