Methuen enrollment dips; administrators warn of FY27 state aid impacts

Methuen school officials told the School Committee on Nov. 10 that certified October 1 enrollment is roughly 200 students below last year and that the district is seeing both an influx of new registrations (about 656 new students counted since August, largely kindergarten) and concerning declines in particular grades.

Superintendent Dr. Quang said the certified counts will affect the district’s FY27 foundation budget. "That enrollment number is at the basis for our FY27 foundation budget," he said, warning that a drop of about 200 students could translate into a multi‑million‑dollar change in state aid. He estimated a prior comparable decline had moved roughly $2,000,000 in state aid, while staff elsewhere referenced an FY estimate of about $3,100,000 tied to federal grant‑funded salaries in a prior year.

Administrators also noted that while overall certified counts fell, need indicators are rising: roughly 3,900 students now qualify for free and reduced‑price lunch — the highest number administrators recall — and preschool special‑education enrollment is growing. The district also added 200 CTE seats this year and expanded some pathway programs, which creates targeted state aid opportunities but adds programmatic and staffing pressure.

Committee members asked for school‑and‑grade breakdowns, building capacity numbers, and five‑year projections; staff said they will produce a per‑school/grade capacity breakdown and work with the finance subcommittee to model the budget impacts. One member asked for projections relating to a pending housing proposal of 160–163 new units across town; staff said they would request projected student impacts from the city’s planning staff, as is typically done for new developments.

The administration emphasized the uncertainty of the picture: enrollment shifts (withdrawals, new students, kindergarten registration timing) are ongoing and state aid calculations are based on certified counts. The committee asked for follow‑up reporting ahead of the FY27 budget process.