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District demographer warns of north-end growth and south-end decline in 11-year forecast
Summary
Okaloosa staff presented an 11-year K-5 forecast showing growth north of the Shoal River and constriction in central and southern zones; district leaders said the pattern will require capacity, staffing and budget planning and could prompt difficult future decisions. Board asked for more granular scenarios.
District demographer and senior staff presented enrollment trends and an 11-year K-5 forecast that, the presenters said, reveal a growing disparity across the county: sustained growth in the North-of-Shoal-River zone and steady declines in central and southern zones.
What staff presented: The forecast projects roughly 851 additional K-5 students in the North zone over the 11-year period represented on the slide; staff said North-end elementary schools…
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