Vincent Cannizzaro of the Pennsylvania Economy League presented the district’s enrollment study and told the board the firm’s projections indicate a modest overall decline in K–12 enrollment over the next 10 years, with variation by grade band.

Cannizzaro summarized methodology: population and housing trends, birth rates, migration, and grade progression ratios. He said the study’s projections were within industry standards (the firm reported being generally within 1% of actuals historically) and that the district’s October 1 enrollment was slightly below the study’s projection for 2023 (61,189 actual vs. 62,42 projected on the draft slide; the difference was fewer than 100 students and under 1 percent).

The presentation highlighted that births‑to‑enrollment ratios in recent years are below 1.0 (meaning not every child born in district boundaries later enrolls in district schools) and that housing additions are a key variable driving future enrollment. Cannizzaro recommended the district consider a household census or survey to better capture intention to enroll and suggested the district use conservative five‑year planning windows where projection error is smaller.

Board members asked about how the study converts new housing units into students; Cannizzaro said the team uses historical ratios (about 32 students per 100 housing units in the most recent baseline) and adjusts for local conditions. He noted projections can range widely depending on high/low birth‑rate assumptions and that extremes (e.g., 4,000 vs. 8,500 pupils) were possible in model bounds but unlikely. The firm offered to provide additional municipal‑level breakdowns and to return with clarifications if the board had further questions.

Administration said the final report will be posted to the district website and will be provided to partners doing kindergarten studies and other planning work.