Eric Forman, City of Fairfax planner, told the school board on Nov. 10 that recent enrollment data and the city’s housing pipeline present a mixed picture: three of the four city schools saw membership declines this year versus last-year projections, while Fairfax High saw a modest increase. "Daniel's Run... we've seen a drop of 70 students," Forman said, calling it one of the largest declines among schools in the county and noting that it represents a meaningful percentage of that school's enrollment.

Forman walked the board through student-generation yield ratios used to estimate the school impact of new housing: older detached neighborhoods have higher yields (he cited roughly 0.383, or about 38 students per 100 units), while many new rental apartment projects use an apartment ratio of about 0.115 (roughly 11–12 students per 100 units). He warned that yields change over time and that unit mix (market-rate vs. affordable; one-bedroom vs. two-bedroom) can materially alter student impacts.

The planning presentation catalogued a long list of approved, under-construction and proposed projects in Fairfax City: Scout on the Circle, Pointe of Fairfax, Boulevard 6, Northfax, Overlook at Fairfax Boulevard (redevelopment of Fairfax Garden Apartments), the Davies property (approved for 276 apartments), and larger commercial-to-residential proposals such as a 261-unit, 10-story building at Fairfax Circle and the Gatewood Plaza concept of roughly 300 units. Forman estimated many large multifamily approvals would each yield in the low tens of students ("about 20–30 students") depending on final unit mixes and affordability levels; he also estimated the currently approved pipeline could yield about 70 net new students over five years if ratios hold.

Board members sought updated project-level yield tables and asked for the comparisons Forman provided in May; several members flagged that some site names and unit mixes had changed since last materials. Forman said the city maintains a development map and handed materials to the board for later review.

Forman cautioned that several variables create uncertainty: lease-up patterns (some projects have already stabilized and shown higher yields), future changes in unit mix after entitlement, and regional demographic changes including lower immigration and domestic out-migration that can reduce school-age population.

Next steps: staff will provide board members the updated project-level student-yield charts and maps referenced in the presentation; city and school staff will monitor enrollments and refine yield assumptions as additional occupancy data arrives.