Snohomish housing official: supply shortfall, high interest rates have priced out most regional workers

Chris Collier, program manager for the Alliance for Housing Affordability and government relations director for the Housing Authority of Snohomish County, told Arlington City Council on Oct. 28 that housing production across Snohomish County has failed to keep pace with new households — a shortfall that, combined with recent interest‑rate increases, has pushed ownership out of reach for most workers.

"Prices are exceeding the buying power of all but 15% of the region's workforce," Collier said during a 20‑minute presentation on county and city housing trends. He showed county charts of units built versus household formation, long‑run increases in median single‑family sale prices (adjusted for inflation) and a recent spike in required income to qualify for a mortgage driven largely by rising interest rates in 2021.

Collier gave specific measures of the gap between need and assistance. He estimated about 86,993 very low‑income households in Snohomish County in 2023 and said the Housing Authority of Snohomish County can support roughly 6,000 households through its publicly owned units and housing‑choice vouchers; Everett’s housing authority and other income‑restricted developments add capacity, but Collier concluded that available assistance covers only about one in four qualifying households.

He highlighted rental and ownership dynamics: apartment construction has accounted for most recent production, which briefly eased rents in parts of the county, but production slowed after COVID and in the face of higher interest rates, creating a risk that rents will resume upward pressure as absorption of existing vacancies continues. Collier cited that roughly 20% of home sales have clustered above the $1 million band in recent years and said less than 2% of the region's workforce could afford a single‑family home on a single income.

Councilmembers asked about migration, accessory dwelling units (ADUs) and whether the commuting data accounted for increased remote work. Collier said migration data exist and he would provide detailed tables; he described ADUs as helpful but unlikely to be a full solution and noted recent state law changes (House Bill 1137) that may affect ADU permitting; and he said the dataset he used intentionally referenced 2019 to reduce confounding from COVID‑era remote‑work effects but that some datasets do capture work‑from‑home.

Collier urged Arlington to define and support a broader mix of housing types — ‘‘starter’’ homes for new households and downsizing units for seniors — and to embed those objectives in the comprehensive plan. He offered to circulate his full PDF and slide deck to council members and staff.

Where it stands: Collier’s presentation was informational; council asked follow‑up questions and staff will receive the presentation materials for review. No formal policy decisions or votes on housing programs were taken at the meeting.