Tracy Healy, president of Futurethink, told the Williamsburg-James City County School Board that the division's four projection scenarios (low, moderate, most-likely and high) give planners a range for facility and budget decisions. "The most likely projection we have is an increase over the 10-year window of 1,147 students," Healy said during the Nov. 11 meeting. She described a parallel low scenario that would see a decline of about 807 students over the same period.

Healy reviewed recent enrollment history and method: WJCC has lost 285 students over the past 10 years and recorded a year-over-year decline of 233 students between last year and this year. The presentation explained that projections use cohort survival ratios and local housing-permit trends to estimate yields by grade and by school.

Board members pressed staff on how the numbers relate to redistricting. Dr. Keever said the division will show the board an initial redistricting look in December that aligns with the Futurethink projections. Capacity concerns were highlighted for high schools: Jamestown was presented as overcapacity (about 107 percent) and is expected to remain above 100 percent through 2029 before a gradual decline, while Lafayette and other high schools are projected to fall somewhat over time.

School staff said the projections will be one input in redistricting scenarios. Healy cautioned that projections are not precise forecasts but planning tools: "We provide most likely, moderate, low and high sets so you can plan for facilities and budgets," she said.

Next steps: the division will present school-level and geographic analyses to the board in December to support redistricting conversations and longer-range facility planning.